The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.18%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.07%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.05%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are down -0.01%.
US stocks are narrowly mixed ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting results and press conference by Fed Chair Warsh. Stocks are seeing support from chip stocks after the world’s second-biggest memory chipmaker SK Hynix reported favorable quarterly results. Stocks are being undercut by today’s +3 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield and a rally of more than +2% in oil prices.
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Dec WTI crude oil prices are up more than +2% today as the Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday that the US has told several Persian Gulf countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign against Iran. WSJ said President Trump hasn’t yet decided to proceed with the attack but is leaning toward an attack after next Tuesday’s mid-term elections. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu is leading in the vote count from Tuesday’s Israeli election.
On the AI front, hyper-scalers Alphabet and Microsoft report earnings after today’s market close, and Amazon.com reports after Thursday’s market close.
The FOMC, in its 2-day meeting that ends today, is expected to leave interest rates unchanged but maintain a hawkish bias in response to persistent inflation. The ECB meets this Thursday, and the Bank of Japan meets this Friday. Both the ECB and BOJ are expected to leave rates unchanged, with a much higher chance of rate hikes in December.
The Sep US trade deficit of -$134.9 billion was wider than market expectations of -$130.2 billion. Sep exports rose +2.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +2.6%. Sep imports rose +2.6% m/m, stronger than market expectations of +1.3%.
Stocks are supported by the prospect of solid quarterly earnings. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb by +26% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. As of Tuesday, 175 of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 82% beating estimates.
Overseas stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.08%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.91%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +1.08%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down -8 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.1 bp to 5.028%. T-note prices are being undercut by today’s rally of more than +2% in crude oil prices and the +0.4 bp rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 2.358%. There is supply overhang as the Treasury will sell $44 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday.
The T-note market is trading cautiously ahead of this afternoon’s results of the 2-day FOMC meeting. The FOMC meeting is not expected to result in a rate hike but is likely to produce hawkish commentary about the need for additional rate hikes to address above-target inflation. Markets are pricing in only a 9% chance of a hike at this week’s meeting, but a 94% chance at the next FOMC meeting on December 8-9.
European government bond yields are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.5 bp to 3.375%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -1.4 bp to 5.332%.
Markets are pricing in only a 2% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at this Thursday’s ECB meeting, but an 83% chance of a rate hike at the following meeting on December 17.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven are trading mostly lower, led by declines of more than -1% in Tesla (TSLA) and Meta (META). However, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up +1% after the Bloomberg report that OpenAI intends to buy AI computing chips from Google.
The world’s second-biggest memory chipmaker, SK Hynix, reported favorable quarterly results, and its South Korean stock (000660) rallied +9.5%, adding to Tuesday’s +5.3% gain. The SK Hynix US-listed ADR (SKHY) is up more than +10% in US trading today. SK Hynix said its memory chips are sold out through 2029 under long-term supply contracts, improving the company’s earnings visibility. The company’s quarterly earnings beat market expectations, and it announced a $45 billion shareholder payout plan. The company also announced plans to expand production capacity.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up +1% although there are some notable chip losers. Micron Technology (MU) and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +4%. Meanwhile, ON Semiconductor (ON) is down more than -4. Globalfoundries (GFS), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and Microchip Technologies (MCHP) are down more than -2%.
Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) is down -0.2%, undercutting crypto stocks. Bullish (BLSH) is down more than -3%, and Circle Internet (CRCL) is down more than -2%. However, Galaxy Digital (GLXY)
is up more than +3%.
GE Vernova (GEV) is down -2% despite providing positive full-year revenue guidance. GE Vernova will buy German-based Trench Group for $9 billion in order to boost its capacity to sell high-voltage grid equipment to meet rising electricity demand.
Wendy’s (WEN) is up more than +14% after a hedge fund group led by Trian Fund Management submitted a non-binding buyout offer at $7.35 per share, which is about a 20% premium to Tuesday’s close. Trian already owns about 16% of Wendy’s shares.
GE Healthcare (GEHC) is up more than +7% after a quarterly earnings beat and higher full-year adjusted earnings guidance.
Boston Scientific (BSX) is down more than -7% after its full-year adjusted earnings guidance was below market expectations.
Etsy (ETSY) is up more than +2% after positive Q3 results.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is down more than -2% after an earnings miss.
Earnings Reports (10/28/2026)
International Paper Co (IP), Amphenol Corp (APH), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), Wingstop Inc (WING), OGE Energy Corp (OGE), Labcorp Holdings Inc (LH), Avantor Inc (AVTR), Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB), Fortive Corp (FTV), Jones Lang LaSalle Inc (JLL), Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL), Biogen Inc (BIIB), Phillips 66 (PSX), Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), IDEX Corp (IEX), HF Sinclair Corp (DINO), Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW), Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS), SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc (SITE), TE Connectivity PLC (TEL), Clean Harbors Inc (CLH), Jersey Mike's Subs Inc (JMKE), GE HealthCare Technologies Inc (GEHC), VF Corp (VFC), Flex Ltd (FLEX), Lennox International Inc (LII), CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW), Etsy Inc (ETSY), NiSource Inc (NI), Littelfuse Inc (LFUS), Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG), Parsons Corp (PSN), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), Aon PLC (AON), Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW), Evercore Inc (EVR), Fedex Freight Holding Co Inc (FDXF), Masco Corp (MAS), Kirby Corp (KEX), Align Technology Inc (ALGN), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), Ford Motor Co (F), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF), EPR Properties (EPR), Hanover Insurance Group Inc/Th (THG), Murphy USA Inc (MUSA), Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN), Honeywell Aerospace Inc (HONA), Everest Group Ltd (EG), VICI Properties Inc (VICI), Carvana Co (CVNA), Equinix Inc (EQIX), KLA Corp (KLAC), Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS), Encompass Health Corp (EHC), Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM), FedEx Corp (FDX), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Morningstar Inc (MORN), Viking Therapeutics Inc (VKTX), Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR), Service Corp International/US (SCI), Gen Digital Inc (GEN), Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR), ServiceNow Inc (NOW), Mid-America Apartment Communit (MAA), Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Nextpower Inc (NXT), Invitation Homes Inc (INVH), FormFactor Inc (FORM), Universal Display Corp (OLED), Fortinet Inc (FTNT), Carlisle Cos Inc (CSL), Antero Resources Corp (AR), WEX Inc (WEX), Sterling Infrastructure Inc (STRL), Antero Midstream Corp (AM), Markel Group Inc (MKL), O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), eBay Inc (EBAY), American Water Works Co Inc (AWK), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), NewMarket Corp (NEU), Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL), Pilgrim's Pride Corp (PPC), Flowserve Corp (FLS), GFL Environmental Inc (GFL).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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