Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 22.
Southwest Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters (missed the mark in one of the remaining quarters and matched the mark in another quarter), delivering an average beat of 246.97%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for Southwest Airlines this earnings season.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced LUV’s Q2 Performance
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUV’s second-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $8.58 billion, indicating 18.38% growth year over year. Management anticipates second-quarter 2026 unit revenues (RASM) to increase in the range of 16.5% to 18.5%,on a year-over-year basis, with capacity up flat to up 1% year over year.
We expect LUV's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in total revenues, driven by high passenger revenues, as domestic air-travel demand stabilizes. Our estimate for passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 18.5% increase from the second-quarter 2025 actual.
LUV is also expected to benefit from revenue initiatives and continued cost control, which contribute to solid results and strong momentum. LUV’s customer-focused product offering, operational excellence and dramatic progress from the transformational initiatives implemented last year are likely to act as other tailwinds. Further, Southwest Airlines’ lean cost structure, expanding operations and strategic partnerships, coupled with its efforts to reward its shareholders, also bode well.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUV’s second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 3.70% in the past 60 days to 52 cents per share. However, the consensus mark implies an upside of 20.93% from the year-ago actual. The consensus estimate lies within the company-provided guided range of 35-65 cents.
Fuel remains a key swing factor in near-term results. Notably, oil prices declined by almost 31% during the April-June 2026 period, with oil prices being down 20% during the month of June 2026 alone. As fuel expenses represent a key input cost for any transportation player, a fall in oil prices bodes well for the bottom-line growth of airline stocks. For the second quarter of 2026, the company assumes fuel cost per gallon to be between $4.10 and $4.15.
Escalated labor and airport costs are also likely to have been high, which would have hurt the company’s bottom-line performance in the June quarter. LUV expects to continue experiencing increased cost pressure from the labor agreements and deals inked with the pilots. We expect operating costs to increase 16.9% in the second quarter of 2026 from first-quarter 2025 actuals, led by the 5.9% rise in salaries and related costs.
LUV anticipates second-quarter 2026 CASM-X to be between 3.5% and 4.0% year over year, which includes an expected 1.2-point impact from the removal of six seats from the Boeing 737-700 fleet to enable extra legroom seating.
What Our Model Says About LUV
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Southwest Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Southwest Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -1.21% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Southwest Airlines Co. Price and EPS Surprise
Southwest Airlines Co. price-eps-surprise | Southwest Airlines Co. Quote
Highlights of LUV’s Q1 Earnings
Southwest Airlines reported first-quarter of 2026 earnings per share of 45 cents, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate and improving from a loss of 13 cents in the year-ago quarter. The quarter reflected solid execution as the carrier’s commercial and cost initiatives began showing up more clearly in reported results.
Operating revenues of $7.24 billion edged past the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.21 billion for a 0.4% surprise and rose 12.8% year over year.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
CSX Corporation CSX has an Earnings ESP of +1.31% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
CSX is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised marginally upward over the past 30 days. CSX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average beat being 3.2%.
Expeditors International of Washington EXPD has an Earnings ESP of +2.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
EXPD is set to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Expeditors’ second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised 2.52% upward over the past 60 days. EXPD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, delivering an average beat of 13.96%.
Schneider National SNDR has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. SNDR is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 30.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has remained flat at 22 cents over the past 60 days. SNDR’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark twice and met the mark once in the remaining three quarters). The average miss is 17.97%.
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Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV): Free Stock Analysis Report
CSX Corporation (CSX): Free Stock Analysis Report
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD): Free Stock Analysis Report
Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).