NVR, Inc. NVR is expected to report lower earnings in the second quarter of 2026. Homebuilding revenues are also likely to have decreased on a year-over-year basis, given soft demand and margin headwinds.
In the last reported quarter, earnings and homebuilding revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.4% and 7.9%, respectively. Also, both metrics declined on a year-over-year basis by 29% and 22%.
The company’s earnings beat the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 2.5%.
How Are Estimates Placed for NVR Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS has increased to $95.80 from $95.20 in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 11.74% decrease from the year-ago EPS of $108.54.
NVR, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
NVR, Inc. price-eps-surprise | NVR, Inc. Quote
The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $2.41 billion, indicating a decrease of 5.6% from the year-ago reported figure of $2.55 billion.
Factors Likely to Shape NVR’s Q2 Results
NVR's second-quarter Homebuilding revenues are expected to have remained under pressure as elevated mortgage rates and higher homeownership costs are likely to have continued to limit affordability across many markets. Affordability challenges, coupled with cautious consumer sentiment, are expected to have delayed purchase decisions and moderated buyer demand during the quarter. The company is also likely to have maintained elevated sales incentives to support demand amid the challenging housing environment.
Our model predicts Homebuilding revenues (which accounted for 97.8% of total revenues in 2025) to decline 5.5% year over year to $2.41 billion in the to-be-reported quarter. For the quarter to be reported, we anticipate total settlements to decrease 6.7% to 5,107 units on a year-over-year basis.
The company's bottom line is expected to have decreased year over year in the quarter as elevated sales incentives are likely to have weighed on profitability. At the same time, higher lot, labor and building materials costs are expected to have increased construction expenses, creating additional pressure on homebuilding margins. We expect the homebuilding gross margin to be 18.3%, down 320 basis points year over year.
Our model predicts total new orders to increase slightly by 0.8% year over year to 5,421 units. The backlog is currently pegged at 10,484 units, which indicates an increase from 10,069 units reported a year ago. We expect the value of the backlog to be $4.77 billion, implying a slight increase from $4.75 billion in the corresponding year-ago quarter.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for NVR
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for NVR for the quarter to be reported. The company does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.
NVR’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
NVR’s Zacks Rank: NVR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.
Dycom Industries, Inc. DY currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.47% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
With the average surprise being 25%, Dycom’s earnings beat estimates in the last four quarters. Dycom’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 39.3%.
Owens Corning OC has an Earnings ESP of +1.66% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
For the quarter to be reported, Owens Corning’s earnings are expected to decline 27.3%. OC’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 3.8%.
United Rentals URI currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.39% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
The company’s earnings beat estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other three occasions, the average negative surprise being 1.5%. United Rentals’ earnings for the quarter are expected to increase 11.5%.
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NVR, Inc. (NVR): Free Stock Analysis Report
United Rentals, Inc. (URI): Free Stock Analysis Report
Dycom Industries, Inc. (DY): Free Stock Analysis Report
Owens Corning Inc (OC): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).