We expect Biogen BIIB to beat expectations when it reports second-quarter 2026 results on July 29, before market opens. In the last reported quarter, the company's earnings beat expectations by 21.02%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $2.47 billion and 79 cents per share, respectively.
Factors to Consider for Biogen
In the second quarter, lower sales of Biogen’s multiple sclerosis (“MS”) drugs, excluding Vumerity, are likely to have been offset by sequential revenue growth from new products.
Sales of Biogen’s MS drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri are likely to have declined due to generic competition for Tecfidera globally, biosimilar competition for Tysabri in Europe and rising competitive pressure in the MS market.
Biogen saw an increased impact of Tecfidera generics in Europe in the last two quarters, with the trend expected to continue in the second quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales of Tecfidera is pegged at $103.0 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tysabri is $375.0 million.
Sales of another MS drug, Vumerity, are expected to have risen due to strong demand in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vumerity is $205.0 million.
Sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, are likely to have declined due to lower demand in the U.S. market. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Spinraza is $379.0 million.
The performance of Biogen’s newly launched drug Skyclarys for Friedreich’s ataxia is likely to have continued to improve sequentially, backed by demand growth in outside U.S. markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Skyclarys sales is $155.0 million.
Sales of another new drug, Zurzuvae, are likely to have benefited from strong demand trends.
Biogen has a collaboration with Supernus Pharmaceuticals SUPN for Zurzuvae. Biogen and Supernus Pharmaceuticals equally share profits and losses for the commercialization of Zurzuvae in the United States. In outside U.S. markets, Biogen records product sales (excluding Japan, Taiwan and South Korea) and pays royalties to Supernus.
Alzheimer’s collaboration revenues are expected to have risen in the quarter. Alzheimer’s collaboration revenues include Biogen’s 50% share of net product revenues and cost of sales (including royalties) from Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi (lecanemab), which has been developed in collaboration with Eisai.
Leqembi sales have been improving sequentially over the past few quarters, driven by demand growth globally. The positive trend is expected to have continued in the second quarter. Eisai records Leqembi sales.
In May, Biogen closed its acquisition of Apellis Pharmaceuticals, adding the commercialized medicines Empaveli and Syfovre for immune-mediated retinal disease and nephrology to its commercial portfolio. Investors will look for sales numbers of these newly added drugs. In June, Biogen announced a definitive agreement to acquire RayThera for $1 billion to strengthen its immunology pipeline.
In the second quarter, Biogen will record IPR&D charges related to the Apellis acquisition and the acquisition of exclusive rights to felzartamab in China from TJ Biopharma, which will hurt its EPS.
In the second quarter, Biogen expects core operating expenses to be roughly consistent with the first quarter.
BIIB’s Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 26.87%, on average.
Biogen Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Biogen Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Biogen Inc. Quote
Biogen’s stock has risen 14.0% so far this year compared with an increase of 2.2% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Says for BIIB
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Biogen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is +282.03%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 79 cents per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged higher at $3.02 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are two drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals REGN has an Earnings ESP of +1.22% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Regeneron stock has declined 15.3% so far this year. REGN beat estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 26.33%, on average. Regeneron is scheduled to report second-quarter results on July 30.
Pfizer PFE has an Earnings ESP of +2.07% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Shares of Pfizer have risen 3.8% so far this year. Pfizer beat earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 21.93%. Pfizer is scheduled to report second-quarter results on Aug. 4.
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Biogen Inc. (BIIB): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).