UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 13, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $4.12 per share on revenues of $111.38 billion.
Third-quarter earnings estimates witnessed no movement over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates an improvement of 41.1% from the year-ago reported number. But the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 1.6%.
For the current year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealth’s revenues is pegged at $446.78 billion, implying a decline of 0.2% year over year. However, the consensus mark for current-year earnings per share is pegged at $19.85, implying an improvement of 21.4% on a year-over-year basis.
UnitedHealth beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 12.1%. This is depicted in the figure below.
UnitedHealth Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Quote
Q3 Earnings Whispers for UNH
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.
UNH currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping UNH’s Q3 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium revenues for the third quarter indicates a 3.3% year-over-year decline, whereas our model estimate suggests a nearly 5% fall. Reduced contributions from both the UnitedHealthcare division and Optum Health are expected to have led to the decrease.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealthcare’s total domestic commercial customers suggests a 1.3% year-over-year decline, whereas our estimate implies a 2.7% slip. The consensus mark for Medicare Advantage members indicates an 11.4% year-over-year decrease, while we expect an 11.7% decline. The same for Medicaid memberships implies a 9.1% fall from the year-ago level. These are likely to have pushed total memberships in the domestic market down from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate implies around a 4.1% reduction year over year. These are likely to have affected its revenues in the third quarter.
Nevertheless, improved medical cost management is likely to have provided some relief to UNH’s medical care ratio in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at 90.1%, indicating a slight deterioration from 89.9% in the year-ago quarter.
As such, the consensus mark for UnitedHealthcare’s operating income signals a 26.8% year-over-year jump. Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for operating income from the total Optum business segment suggests a 26.7% year-over-year increase.
UNH’s Price Performance & Valuation
UnitedHealth's stock has gained 13.9% in the year-to-date period compared with the industry’s growth of 16.4%. Its peers, such as Humana Inc. HUM and Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH, have jumped 54.8% and 12.3%, respectively, during this time. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has increased 14.7%.
YTD Price Performance – UNH, HUM, MOH, Industry & S&P 500
Now, let’s look at the value UnitedHealth offers investors at current levels.
UNH is trading at 17.15X forward 12-month earnings, below its five-year median of 19.05X, but above the industry’s average of 15.16X. In comparison, Humana and Molina Healthcare are currently trading at 28.44X and 22.31X, respectively.
How Should You Play UNH Stock Now?
UnitedHealth appears well-positioned for a gradual recovery, supported by improving medical-cost trends, strategic portfolio optimization and a more favorable Medicare Advantage reimbursement environment. Management’s efforts to exit underperforming markets and prioritize profitable operations should strengthen margins and support earnings growth. Optum’s diversified operations and transition toward a more transparent pharmacy benefit model provide additional opportunities for long-term expansion. Meanwhile, disciplined capital deployment and shareholder-friendly initiatives reinforce the company’s financial flexibility.
However, that decline in memberships and persistent high healthcare utilization warrant attention. The upcoming third-quarter results will be crucial in assessing whether recent operational improvements are sustainable. Moreover, the company's valuation remains below its historical median, despite trading above the industry average.
Improving profitability prospects and continued business restructuring support an encouraging long-term outlook. With earnings estimates indicating a recovery and the stock offering potential for further appreciation, investors may consider accumulating shares at current levels.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).