AGNC Investment Corp. AGNC is slated to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 20, after market close.
The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results were adversely impacted by a decline in average asset yield and reduced net interest spread. However, a rise in tangible net BVPS on the portfolio was positive.
AGNC Investment’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with an average negative surprise of 3.88%.
AGNC Investment Corp. Price and EPS Surprise
AGNC Investment Corp. price-eps-surprise | AGNC Investment Corp. Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings of 36 cents per share has been unchanged over the past week. This indicates a decline of 18.2% from the year-ago reported level.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest income for the first quarter of 2026 is pegged at $310.9 million, indicating a rise of 95.5% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
Factors to Impact AGNC’s Q1 Performance
The first quarter of 2026 was challenging for the mortgage banking business. While rates moved lower early in the quarter, they climbed again toward the end of March as macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions pushed interest rates higher. Throughout the quarter, the mortgage rate hovered at 6-6.5%. While refinance activity has seen a slight boost from the 2025 lows, purchase volume faced pressure from inventory constraints.
Given this backdrop, AGNC Investment’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio is likely to have faced somewhat higher interest-rate volatility and wider agency MBS spreads during the quarter. AGNC noted in its March 2026 Macro Monitor that the uncertain macro environment led to higher rates across the curve, elevated rate volatility and wider agency MBS spreads on a month-over-month basis. This may have pressured the company’s book value performance in the first quarter of 2026.
Prepayment trends, however, were likely manageable. Although mortgage rates were lower at certain points during the quarter, the overall level of rates remained high enough to keep refinancing incentives fairly limited. As a result, AGNC’s constant prepayment rates are expected to have stayed relatively contained, which is likely to have helped moderate premium amortization expenses and offered some support to net interest income. This dynamic is likely to have been a modest positive for average asset yield during the quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest income is pegged at $997.4 million, indicating a rise of 17.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
However, the broader market environment was less favorable in the first quarter of 2026 than in the prior quarter. Wider spreads and higher rate volatility likely weighed on agency MBS valuations, and this is anticipated to have offset some of the benefits of the stable prepayments trend in the quarter-to-be reported.
What Our Model Unveils for AGNC Investment
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AGNC this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: AGNC Investment has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: AGNC Investment currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
REIT Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of REIT stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
NETSTREIT Corp. NTST is also expected to release its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 20. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Quarterly earnings estimates for NETSTREIT have been unchanged at 34 cents per share over the past week.
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust PMT is expected to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 28. The company has an Earnings ESP of +8.54% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust have been unchanged at 36 cents per share over the past week.
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AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC): Free Stock Analysis Report
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NETSTREIT Corp. (NTST): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).