Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at Analog Devices (ADI), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Analog Devices currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of "A or B" outperform the market over the following one-month period.
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Set to Beat the Market?
Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for ADI that show why this semiconductor maker shows promise as a solid momentum pick.
A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.
For ADI, shares are up 9.99% over the past week while the Zacks Semiconductor - Analog and Mixed industry is up 8.7% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 11.14% compares favorably with the industry's 14.56% performance as well.
Considering longer term price metrics, like performance over the last three months or year, can be advantageous as well. Over the past quarter, shares of Analog Devices have risen 17.9%, and are up 94.16% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved 0.86% and 30.33%, respectively.
Investors should also take note of ADI's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now ADI is averaging 3,181,584 shares for the last 20 days..
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with ADI.
Over the past two months, 10 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost ADI's consensus estimate, increasing from $9.96 to $11.24 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 7 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom Line
Given these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that ADI is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of A. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Analog Devices on your short list.
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Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).