Nexa Resources S.A. NEXA is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell on May 6.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total sales is pegged at $958 million, suggesting an improvement of 52.8% from the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for earnings has moved up 84.85% to 61 cents per share, which indicates year-over-year growth of 281.3%.
Nexa Resources’ Earnings Surprise History
Over the trailing four quarters, Nexa Resources’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and missed the same in the remaining quarter. NEXA has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 75.96%. The trend is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for NEXA
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Nexa Resources this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Nexa Resources is 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: NEXA currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped Nexa Resources’ Q1 Performance
Nexa Resources’ first-quarter 2026 performance is likely to have reflected a strong pricing environment. Through the quarter, copper prices rose 38% year over year, zinc gained 14%, while silver and gold surged 157% and 69%, respectively. Lead prices, however, declined a slight 2%.
On the production front, zinc output is expected to remain a key growth driver following a record 91 kt production in the fourth quarter (up 24% year over year). Nexa Resources’ 2026 guidance points to a roughly 6% year-over-year increase in zinc production, primarily driven by higher output from Aripuanã, Atacocha and Vazante, partially offset by lower volumes at Cerro Lindo and El Porvenir due to mine sequencing. This is expected to have reflected on first-quarter zinc production as well.
After a 12% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025, copper production is expected to decline 17% in 2026, mainly reflecting the planned mining of lower-grade zones. Lead production in 2026 is expected to remain broadly stable compared with 2025. Silver production was down 3% year over year in the fourth quarter while gold production increased 16% . Silver production is projected to decline 3% in 2026.
At the midpoint of the 2026 guidance, total metal sales volumes are expected to increase 3% compared with 2025, reflecting a partial recovery from the lower 2025 base, which was impacted by operational challenges at the Brazilian smelters and low Treatment Charges (TCs). In 2026, overall TCs are expected to increase above the 2025 level of $80 per ton of concentrate.
Cost dynamics are likely to have presented some headwinds. Nexa Resources expects a roughly 4% increase in consolidated run-of-mine costs in 2026, driven by higher costs at Vazante, Cerro Lindo and El Porvenir at mid-point, attributed to lower treated ore volumes, higher energy costs and unfavorable foreign currency variations. These increases are expected to have been partially offset by reductions at Aripuanã and Atacocha, reflecting efficiency gains and lower variable costs. In 2026, consolidated conversion cost is forecast to remain at similar levels to 2025.
Overall, Nexa Resources’ first-quarter 2026 performance is likely to have been shaped by a favorable pricing environment, strong zinc production and improving smelting operations, partially offset by weaker copper volumes and modest cost inflation.
NEXA’s Price Performance
Shares of Nexa Resources have gained 141.8% over the past year compared with the industry's growth of 53.4%.
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Stocks to Consider
Here are three Basic Materials stocks, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
CF Industries CF, scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 6, currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.07% and a Zacks Rank of 1. CF Industries’ earnings for the quarter are pegged at $2.35 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 27%. The company has delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 13.15%.
Wheaton Precious Metals WPM, scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +8.01% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Wheaton Precious’ earnings for the first quarter of 2026 is pegged at $1.14 per share, indicating 107% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Wheaton Precious has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 13.7%.
Barrick Mining Corporation B, scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 11, has an Earnings ESP of +1.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barrick Mining’s earnings for the first quarter of 2026 is pegged at 73 cents per share, indicating 109% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Barrick Mining has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 11.20%.
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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Free Stock Analysis Report
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Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).