The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.55%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.28%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.79%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.58%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.80%.
Stock indexes are mixed today, with the S&P 50 and Nasdaq 10 posting new all-time highs and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 2.5-month high. The broader market is finding support today from Apple, which is up more than +4% after forecasting stronger-than-expected revenue for Q2. Also, Atlassian is up more than +25% to lead software stocks higher after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 revenue. In addition, crude oil prices fell today, temporarily easing inflation concerns.
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The weakness in AI infrastructure stocks is limiting gains in the Nasdaq 100, despite SanDisk reporting Q3 results that beat expectations, as analysts said the results may not have been strong enough to meet high investor expectations.
WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) gave up an early advance today and are down more than -1% after Axios reported that Iran delivered its response to the latest US amendments on the agreement to end the war. Crude prices initially moved higher today after President Trump said he was sticking with a naval blockade of Iran, and Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed not to give up Iran’s nuclear or missile technologies and said Iran would keep control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June.
The markets are discounting an 8% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.
Earnings season ramps up this week with several Magnificent Seven technology stocks reporting. Earnings results thus far have been supportive of stocks. As of today, 81% of the 303 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.
Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 and China's Shanghai Composite did not trade, with markets in Europe and China closed for the Labor Day holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed up +0.38%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.3 bp to 4.394%. T-notes are under pressure today from rising inflation expectations, as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 14.5-month high of 2.50%. Losses in T-notes are limited, as crude prices gave up an early advance and fell more than -1%.
European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German bund yield did not trade with European markets closed for the Labor Day holiday. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -1.9 bp to 4.993%.
ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB will need to increase interest rates in June if "the inflation outlook does not improve markedly."
Swaps are discounting an 89% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11.
US Stock Movers
Apple (AAPL) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 revenue of $111.18 billion, better than the consensus of $109.66 billion, and forecasting Q3 revenue up +14% to +17%, well above the consensus of +9.1%.
Atlassian (TEAM) is up more than +25% to lead software stocks higher after reporting Q3 revenue of $1.79 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.69 billion. Also, Datadog (DDOG) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Salesforce (CRM), Workday (WDAY), Oracle (ORCL), and ServiceNow (NOW) are up more than +3%, and Autodesk (ADSK) and Intuit (INTU) are up more than +2%.
AI-infrastructure stocks are lower today after SanDisk reported Q3 results that beat expectations, but analysts said the results may not have been strong enough to meet high investor expectations. As a result, Qualcomm (QCOM), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Western Digital (WDC) are down more than -2%. Also, NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Analog Devices (ADI), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Lam Research (LRCX), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -1%.
Twilio (TWLO) is up more than +19% after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.41 billion, above the consensus of $1.34 billion, and raising its full-year organic revenue forecast to up +9.5% to +10.5% from a previous estimate of +8% to +9%, stronger than the consensus of +8.7%.
Veeva Systems (VEEV) is up more than +11% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company will replace Coterra Energy in the S&P 500, beginning with the start of trading on Thursday, May 7.
Reddit (RDDT) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 adjusted Ebitda of $266.0 million, above the consensus of $221.3 million.
Estee Lauder (EL) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 net sales of $3.71 billion, better than the consensus of $3.69 billion, and raising its full-year organic net sales forecast to +3% from a prior view of +1% to +3%, stronger than the consensus of +2.84%.
Roblox (RBLX) is down by more than -19% after reporting Q1 daily active users of 132 million, below the consensus of 143.8 million.
Clorox (CLX) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $5.45 to $5.65 from a previous forecast of $5.95 to $6.30, weaker than the consensus of $5.92.
Amgen (AMGN) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 product sales of $8.22 billion, below the consensus of $8.23 billion.
Floor & Decor (FND) is down more than -1% after cutting its full-year EPS forecast to $1.83 to $2.08 from a previous forecast of $1.98 to $2.18.
Earnings Reports(5/1/2026)
AES Corp/The (AES), Affiliated Managers Group Inc (AMG), Aon PLC (AON), Ares Management Corp (ARES), AutoNation Inc (AN), Brookfield Renewable Corp (BEPC), Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE), Chevron Corp (CVX), Church & Dwight Co Inc (CHD), Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL), Dominion Energy Inc (D), Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The (EL), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), Gates Industrial Corp PLC (GTES), HF Sinclair Corp (DINO), Lazard Inc (LAZ), Lear Corp (LEA), Liberty Global Ltd (LBTYA), Linde PLC (LIN), LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB), Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS), Moderna Inc (MRNA), Newell Brands Inc (NWL), nVent Electric PLC (NVT), OneMain Holdings Inc (OMF), Summit Therapeutics Inc (SMMT), TPG Inc (TPG).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.