Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL is set to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $2.03 per share on revenues of $242 million.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the Permian Basin landowner’s results for the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at TPL’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Previous Quarter Earnings
In the last reported quarter, the company, which generates its revenues primarily from oil and natural gas royalties, beat the consensus mark on strong royalty production and water sales. Texas Pacific Land had reported net income per share of $1.79, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.73. Revenues of $211.6 million also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by nearly 4%.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Texas Pacific Land Corporation price-eps-surprise | Texas Pacific Land Corporation Quote
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 16% increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 23.5% improvement from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Texas Pacific Land entered first-quarter 2026 with clear operating strength. In fourth-quarter 2025, oil and gas royalty production hit a quarterly record, with organic royalty production up 23% year over year, even excluding the November royalty acquisition. Water sales also crossed 1 million barrels per day for the first time, rising 36%, while produced water royalty volumes increased 22%. For full-year 2025, royalty production grew 29%, produced water royalty volumes rose 25%, and free cash flow reached a record $498 million, up 8%. This favorable setup is likely to lift TPL’s first-quarter 2026 results.
But on a somewhat bearish note, a softer oil and gas backdrop could have weighed on Texas Pacific Lands’ to-be-announced first-quarter earnings. Management had previously noted that realized oil prices declined 15% year over year in 2025, partly offsetting stronger production and water volumes. The broader Permian also faced weaker activity, with horizontal rig count down about 26%, pressured by low oil and Waha natural gas prices.
TPL’s line-of-sight well inventory (number of wells the company can clearly track and expect to come online) fell to about 19.5, mainly because operators are using up previously drilled but uncompleted wells instead of drilling new ones. While these leftover wells should help keep production steady for the next year or so, the slowdown in new drilling activity could have limited growth in the near term.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Texas Pacific Land this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: TPL has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $2.03 per share each.
Zacks Rank: Texas Pacific Land currently carries a Zacks Rank #2, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Texas Pacific Land, here are some energy firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
APA Corporation APA has an Earnings ESP of +14.52% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 6.
APA beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with the average being 48.4%. Valued at around $14.2 billion, APA has surged 158.9% in a year.
Shell plc SHEL has an Earnings ESP of +3.56% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 7.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings of Shell indicates 58.3% growth. Valued at around $252 billion, Shell is up 36.7% in a year.
Ovintiv Inc. OVV has an Earnings ESP of +21.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 11.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings of Ovintiv indicates 32.6% growth. Valued at more than $17 billion, OVV is up 76.8% in a year.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
APA Corporation (APA): Free Stock Analysis Report
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL): Free Stock Analysis Report
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV): Free Stock Analysis Report
Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR (SHEL): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).