Marriott International, Inc. MAR is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, before the opening bell.
MAR’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 0.7%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAR
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $2.60, indicating growth of 12.1% from $2.32 reported in the year-ago quarter.
Marriott International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Marriott International, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Marriott International, Inc. Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $6.59 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 5.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Marriott’s Q1 Results
Marriott’s first-quarter 2026 performance is likely to have benefited from steady global RevPAR growth, supported by resilient leisure demand and stronger international trends. Management expects first-quarter global RevPAR to increase 1-2%, with benefits from the Winter Olympics in EMEA partly offset by Easter and Chinese New Year timing, as well as tough U.S. comparisons from last year’s inauguration.
International markets are expected to remain a key growth driver. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Marriott saw strong RevPAR gains in APEC and EMEA, with notable strength in markets such as India, Japan, Australia and the UAE. This momentum is likely to have supported first-quarter 2026 results, while Greater China is expected to remain roughly flat amid softer macro conditions. Our model predicts first-quarter Owned, Leased and Other revenues to rise 0.7% year over year to $363.7 million.
Leisure demand is expected to have remained the strongest segment, particularly across luxury and resort properties. Management noted that higher-end consumers remain resilient and continue to prioritize spending on travel and experiences over goods. This trend likely supported Marriott’s luxury portfolio, while select-service properties may have faced pressure from softer, lower-end consumer demand.
Marriott’s fee revenues are likely to have been aided by continued room additions and strong momentum in conversions. The company ended 2025 with a record pipeline of 610,000 rooms and expects net room growth of 4.5-5% in 2026. Conversions remain important, contributing around one-third of signings and openings, with many conversion rooms beginning to contribute to fee growth within 12 months of signing. Our model predicts first-quarter contributions from Franchise Fees and Incentive Management Fees to rise 12.7% and 1.8% year over year to $841 million and $207.7 million, respectively.
On the margins front, the bottom-line performance in the first quarter is likely to benefit from operating efficiencies and disciplined expense management. Management highlighted that the company has spent the past 18 months streamlining operations to improve speed, productivity and cost efficiency across the organization. These efforts, combined with higher fee revenues and continued RevPAR growth, are expected to provide some offset to near-term investment-related pressure.
However, margins may have faced some pressure from renovation activity and ongoing technology investments. Marriott expects owned, leased and other revenue, net of related expenses, to decline in the first quarter from the year-ago period, mainly due to renovations at several large hotels. The company is also continuing its multiyear digital transformation across property management, reservations and loyalty systems, which may keep investment spending elevated.
What Our Model Says About MAR Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Marriott this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAR: Marriott has an Earnings ESP of +0.44%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Marriott’s Zacks Rank: Currently, the company has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Hasbro, Inc. HAS has an Earnings ESP of +5.81% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, HAS’ earnings are expected to increase 4.8%. Hasbro’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 43.9%.
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation FUN currently has an Earnings ESP of +13.34% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, FUN’s earnings are expected to decline 23.2%. Six Flags’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average miss being 52.6%.
Expedia Group, Inc. EXPE currently has an Earnings ESP of +10.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, EXPE’s earnings are expected to surge 252.5%. Expedia’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 3%.
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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).