Will Higher Costs Hurt Skyward Specialty's Q1 Earnings?

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Will Higher Costs Hurt Skyward Specialty's Q1 Earnings?

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. SKWD is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.05 per shareon revenues of $398.43 million.

The first-quarter earnings estimate witnessed one downward revision and one upward revision over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 16.7%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year growth of 21.3%.

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For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Skyward Specialty’s revenues is pegged at $1.77 billion, implying a jump of 25% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $4.69, indicating 17.3% year-over-year growth.

Skyward Specialty’searnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 16.1%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Quote

Q1 Earnings Whispers for SKWD

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

SKWD currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.48%, but a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping SKWD’s Q1 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net earned premiums indicates 18.2% growth from the year-ago period’s $300.4 million. Growth in accident & health and specialty programs is expected to have benefited the metric in the to-be-reported quarter.

The consensus estimate for commission and fee income indicates a 5.1% increase from the year-ago period. Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income indicates 24.6% growth from the year-ago period’s $19.3 million. These are likely to have positioned the company for a year-over-year growth in the first quarter.

However, the consensus estimate for the combined ratio is pegged at 90.8, higher than the year-ago level of 90.5. The same for loss ratio currently stands at 62.3, lower than the year-ago level of 62.4. But the estimate for expense ratio is pegged at 28.5, above 28.1 a year ago. Higher acquisition costs from business mix shift are expected to push the figure higher. These make an earnings beat uncertain.

How Did Peers Perform?

Companies like RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR, The Allstate Corporation ALL and The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. HIG have already reported earnings for the March quarter. Here’s how they have performed:

RenaissanceRe reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $13.75 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 24.2% and improved from the year-ago quarter’s operating loss of $1.49. The quarterly earnings were aided by a decline in expenses and strong underwriting performance in both segments. RenaissanceRe’s improved combined ratio and fee income also contributed to the upside.

Allstate reported a first-quarter 2026 adjusted net income of $10.65 per share, which outpaced the consensus estimate by 43.3% and surged 201.7% year over year.Results were driven by higher property and casualty insurance premiums, improved net investment income and lower catastrophe losses. Lower expenses and strong underwriting performance further aided Allstate’s results.

Hartford posted first-quarter 2026 core earnings per share of $3.09, up 40.5% from $2.20 in the prior-year quarter, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.29. Less favorable prior-year reserve development, higher expenses and pressure in Employee Benefits affected results. The negatives were partially offset by high demand for expensive risk events, stronger investment income and a massive turnaround in Hartford’s Personal Insurance.

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The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
The Allstate Corporation (ALL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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