It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Louisiana-Pacific (LPX). Shares have lost about 5.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Louisiana-Pacific due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Louisiana-Pacific Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Louisiana-Pacific Q1 Earnings Top Estimates, Sales Down on OSB Weakness
Louisiana-Pacific reported mixed first-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted earnings topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate but declining year over year. Net sales marginally surpassed the consensus mark but tumbled year over year.
The decline in quarterly performance primarily reflected significantly lower OSB prices and weaker shipment volumes across both OSB and Siding operations.
Q1 Earnings and Revenue Overview
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 38 cents topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents by 322.2% but declined 71.4% year over year from adjusted EPS of $1.33.
Consolidated net sales of $574 million surpassed the consensus mark of $572 million by 0.3% but declined 20.7% from the year-ago quarter’s $724 million. The decline stemmed from significantly lower OSB pricing and reduced shipment volumes.
Segment Performance
Siding: Net sales declined 10% year over year to $360 million, reflecting an 18% decrease in unit shipments, partly offset by a 9% increase in average selling prices. Pricing gains were driven by annual price increases, favorable sales mix and lower rebate expenses. Segment adjusted EBITDA declined 5% year over year to $101 million from $106 million as lower shipment volumes offset pricing improvements.
OSB: Net sales declined 37% year over year to $168 million due to lower pricing and shipment volumes. The segment reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $12 million against adjusted EBITDA of $54 million in the year-ago quarter.
Within the segment, OSB Structural Solutions pricing declined 21% year over year, while shipments fell 18%. Commodity OSB pricing decreased 31%, with shipments down 12%.
Other: Net sales decreased to $46 million from $54 million in the year-ago quarter, primarily due to lower OSB sales volumes. The segment reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $7 million against an adjusted EBITDA of $2 million a year ago.
Margins and Profitability Metrics
Gross profit declined 41.6% year over year to $115 million from $197 million. Income from operations fell to $34 million from $120 million in the year-ago quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA declined 49.4% year over year to $82 million from $162 million. The decline included a $66 million impact from lower OSB prices, a $10 million impact from lower OSB volumes and a $35 million impact from lower Siding volumes.
Balance Sheet & Capital Allocation
As of March 31, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific had cash and cash equivalents of $164 million compared with $292 million as of Dec. 31, 2025. Total liquidity stood at approximately $900 million at quarter-end.
Long-term debt was $348 million, flat sequentially. During the first quarter, LP invested $61 million in capital expenditures and paid $21 million in dividends.
Cash used in operating activities totaled $38 million during the quarter compared with cash provided by operating activities of $64 million in the prior-year quarter.
Q2 Outlook
For the second quarter of 2026, LP expects Siding net sales between $435 million and $445 million, indicating an approximate 4% year-over-year decline. Siding adjusted EBITDA is expected between $115 million and $120 million, implying margins of nearly 26%. OSB adjusted EBITDA is projected to be a loss of approximately $10 million. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $100 million and $105 million.
2026 Outlook Updated
For full-year 2026, Louisiana-Pacific now expects Siding net sales between $1.65 billion and $1.67 billion compared with its prior expectation of about $1.7 billion. Siding adjusted EBITDA is expected between $410 million and $425 million compared with the previous projection of about $450 million. OSB adjusted EBITDA is projected to be a loss of $40 million for 2026 against the company’s earlier expectation of breakeven. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $345 million and $360 million compared with the prior forecast of about $430 million. Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at approximately $390 million compared with the earlier expectation of about $291 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -21.78% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Louisiana-Pacific has a subpar Growth Score of D, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Louisiana-Pacific has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Louisiana-Pacific is part of the Zacks Building Products - Wood industry. Over the past month, Weyerhaeuser (WY), a stock from the same industry, has gained 4.2%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.
Weyerhaeuser reported revenues of $1.73 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -2%. EPS of $0.11 for the same period compares with $0.11 a year ago.
Weyerhaeuser is expected to post earnings of $0.10 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -16.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +66.7%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Weyerhaeuser. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).