Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’sEarnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
Total Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index are currently expected to be up +21.8% from the same period last year on +10.9% higher revenues, with 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors expected to enjoy positive earnings growth.Q2 earnings estimates have been steadily going up since the quarter got underway, with the current +21.8% growth rate up from +18% at the start of April. Estimates have increased for 5 of the 16 Zacks sectors, including the Tech, Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities, and Business Services sectors.
Q2 earnings are expected to be above the year-earlier level for 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with strong growth expected at the Energy (+114.0% earnings growth), Basic Materials (+47.1%), Tech (+43.6%), Utilities (+14.6%), Aerospace (+10.8%), and Industrial Products (+10.2%) sectors.
The Tech sector has been a critical growth pillar since 2023 Q3 and is expected to continue playing that role in 2026 Q2, with earnings growth of +43.6%. Excluding the Tech sector’s substantial contribution, Q2 earnings growth for the rest of the S&P 500 index would be +11.4% (vs. +21.8% otherwise).
The Revisions Trend Remains Positive
The overall earnings picture continues to be of all-around strength and a steadily improving outlook. This favorable earnings backdrop is evident in the revisions trend, as seen in how expectations for 2026 Q2 have evolved in recent weeks.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
We should note that Q2 estimates have resumed their upward trajectory in recent days, after modestly declining in the days prior to that, even though the overall revisions trend remains positive.
The sectors enjoying positive estimate revisions since the start of April include Energy, Tech, Basic Materials, Utilities, and Business Services. Aggregate Q2 earnings estimates would still be positive since the start of the period, even without favorable revisions for the Energy sector, but aggregate estimates would be down if we exclude the increases in the Energy and Tech sector estimates.
The Tech sector has been enjoying positive estimate revisions for more than a year now, so the sector’s ongoing positive revisions trend is basically more of the same. We have discussed in this space the positive revisions that the Mag 7 group has been experiencing. The Energy sector’s improved earnings outlook is a direct result of the Iran war, as is the upgraded earnings outlook for parts of the Basic Materials sector, particularly the Chemicals industry.
Take, for example, the evolution of Q2 EPS estimates for Dow DOW, LyondellBasell Industries LYB, Methanex MEOH, and others. For Dow and LyondellBasell, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimates for Q2 have more than doubled over the past month, while the same for Methanex has increased by more than 30%.
On the negative side, Q2 estimates have come under renewed pressure since the start of the period for the Transportation, Autos, Medical, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.
The chart below shows S&P 500 expectations for 2026 Q2 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the following three quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As with estimates for Q2, estimates for full-year 2026 have also been steadily going up, particularly since the start of March. The chart below shows the evolution of aggregate S&P 500 earnings estimates since last July.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Full-year 2026 earnings estimates have increased for 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors since the start of March, with the most pronounced gains at the Energy, Basic Materials, Tech, Industrials, Utilities, and Business Services sectors. On the negative side, estimates have been under pressure for the Transportation, Autos, Medical, and Consumer Discretionary sectors since the start of March.
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Dow Inc. (DOW): Free Stock Analysis Report
Methanex Corporation (MEOH): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).