The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down by -0.58% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.95%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.69%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.56%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.67%.
Stock indexes are falling today, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials posting 6-week lows. Stocks are under pressure as elevated crude oil prices raise inflation expectations and push bond yields higher worldwide. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 19-year high of 5.04% today. The 10-year German Bund yield rose to a 17-year high of 3.57%, and the 10-year Japan JGB bond yield rose to a 30-year high of 3.04%. Also, enthusiasm for the AI trade, the major driver of stock gains this year, remains tempered as debate continues over whether the technology may inflict catastrophic harm and whether political pressure for new regulations may slow development.
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Stock losses are limited as chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks recover some of Monday’s sell-off and move higher. Energy producers are also climbing today, with crude oil prices up more than +2%.
As a bearish factor, the US Sep Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions fell -13.0 points to 7.6, weaker than expectations of 15.0.
Weaker-than-expected economic news from China is negative for economic growth prospects and bearish for stocks. China Aug retail sales rose +0.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.8% y/y. Also, the China Aug surveyed jobless rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 5.3%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 5.2%. In addition, China Aug new home prices fell -0.17% m/m, the thirty-ninth consecutive month home prices have declined. On the positive side, China Aug industrial production rose +5.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.8% y/y.
Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are up more than +2% today but are below Monday’s 3.75-month high. Crude prices are climbing as disruptions to Middle East supplies persist, further tightening global oil supplies. Last Friday, Saudi Arabia closed a major pipeline following attacks, disrupting a key route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The East-West pipeline, which carries 7 million bpd of crude, was closed after threats from Houthi rebels, and officials gave no indication of when it will reopen. The pipeline moves oil away from the Persian Gulf toward the Red Sea, where it can be loaded on tankers. Saudi Arabia told OPEC last Thursday that its crude production in August fell to 6.238 million bpd, the lowest since 1990.
Markets are discounting a 94% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.
Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 dropped to a 2.25-month low and is down -0.22%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.54%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.01%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down by -10 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.7 bp to 5.004%. T-notes fell to a new 2.75-year nearest futures low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 19-year high of 5.039%. Today’s +2% jump in WTI crude oil prices is raising inflation expectations and weighing on T-notes. Supply concerns are also undercutting T-notes as the Treasury will auction $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today. In addition, heightened expectations of a +25 bp interest rate hike by the Fed at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting are weighing on T-note prices. T-notes recovered from their worst level after the Sep Empire manufacturing survey fell more than expected.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 17-year high of 3.573% and is up +1.9 bp to 3.537%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +4.1 bp to 5.408%.
The German Sep ZEW survey of expectations of economic growth index rose +0.5 to a 7-month high of 34.7, weaker than expectations of 40.0.
Markets are discounting a 51% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are falling today as optimism wanes that a comprehensive US crypto regulatory bill will progress through Congress. Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) is down more than -4%. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is down more than -9%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is down more than -7%. Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -6%, and Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -5%. In addition, Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than -4%, and MARA Holdings (MARA), Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and Iren Ltd (IREN) are down more than -3%.
Software stocks are retreating today, giving back some of Monday’s gains. Adobe Systems (ADBE), Atlassian Corp (TEAM), Intuit (INTU), and Thomson Reuters (TRI) are down more than -2%. Also, Datadog (DDOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Salesforce (CRM), ServiceNow (NOW), and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -1%.
Airlines and cruise line operators are falling today, with crude prices up more than +2%, raising fuel costs and weighing on profitability prospects. American Airlines Group (AAL) is down more than -3%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) are down more than -2%. Also, Delta Air Lines (DAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are down more than -1%.
Chipmakers and AI stocks are moving higher today, limiting losses in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up nearly +1%. Qualcomm (QCOM) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +3%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +2%. In addition, Intel (INTC) and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are up more than +1%.
Energy stocks and service providers are climbing today with WTI crude oil up more than +1%. APA Corp (APA) is up more than +3%, and Devon Energy (DVN) is up more than +2%. Also, ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Valero Energy (VLO), and ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) are up more than +1%. In addition, Chevron (CVX) is up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Enova International (ENVA) is down more than -24% after withdrawing its application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve for the acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp.
Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) is down -14% after reporting Q2 revenue of $544.1 million, weaker than the consensus of $558.1 million.
Axon Enterprise (AXON) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after announcing it intends to offer $1 billion of convertible senior notes due in 2031 in a public offering.
Forgent Power Solutions (FPS) is up more than +10% after reporting Q4 revenue of 461.7 million, well above the consensus of $432 million.
Waystar Holding Corp (WAY) is up more than +7% after a Reuters report said the company is exploring options that include a sale.
Earnings Reports (9/15/2026)
Critical Metals Corp (CRML), Evolution Petroleum Corp (EPM), Forgent Power Solutions Inc (FPS).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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