December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ26) are up +0.30%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ26) are up +0.27% this morning as a retreat in oil prices offered investors some relief at the start of a busy week that includes earnings from major tech names, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, and a slew of U.S. economic data.
The price of WTI crude fell nearly -2% on Monday as traders weighed diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war against lingering Middle East supply risks. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey are set to meet with their Iranian counterparts on Monday in an effort to prevent another escalation of hostilities. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News that it’s “getting to be decision time” on whether to reach a deal with Tehran or “finish it off.”
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In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended mostly lower as oil prices surged to a five-month high, pushing Treasury yields higher and sapping risk appetite. Bloom Energy (BE) tumbled over -11% and was the top percentage loser in the S&P 500 after the fuel-cell maker posted negative free cash flow in Q3. Also, telecom stocks sank after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was in talks to secure at least 80,000 cell towers as it seeks to compete with wireless carriers, with AT&T (T) slumping nearly -8% and T-Mobile US (TMUS) falling more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. In addition, Deckers Outdoor (DECK) slid over -4% after the Ugg maker reported weaker-than-expected FQ2 sales and cut its full-year sales guidance. On the bullish side, cybersecurity stocks rallied on expectations of increased security spending following the discovery of critical vulnerabilities in the PHP programming language, with CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) climbing over +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rising more than +7%.
Economic data released on Friday were mostly better than expected, providing some support to equities. The S&P Global flash U.S. manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 56.0 in October, stronger than expectations of 55.4, while the S&P Global flash services PMI fell to 57.9, in line with expectations. Separately, the University of Michigan’s U.S. October consumer sentiment index was unexpectedly revised upward to 48.0, compared with expectations for an unrevised reading of 46.3.
“October’s flash PMI data indicate that the U.S. economy continues to boom at the start of the fourth quarter,” said Chris Williamson at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Third-quarter corporate earnings season hits full throttle this week, with roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report results. All eyes will be on three members of the Magnificent Seven—Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon.com (AMZN). While all three tech giants are expected to post double-digit revenue growth, investors will be particularly focused on their AI spending plans and whether those investments are generating sufficient returns. Other major companies set to report this week include Intel (INTC), Sandisk (SNDK), Seagate Technology Holdings (STX), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), Boeing (BA), ExxonMobil (XOM), and Chevron (CVX). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are expected to post an average +25% jump in third-quarter earnings from a year earlier.
Market participants will also pay close attention to the Fed’s interest rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, following its first rate hike since 2023 last month. U.S. rate futures are currently pricing in just a 9.4% chance of a hike. Instead, Fed watchers expect a move at the December meeting, the final one of 2026, putting the spotlight on Chairman Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference. Mr. Warsh is unlikely to provide much guidance on December, but may also be reluctant to push back against market expectations for a hike.
In addition, investors will monitor a raft of U.S. economic data. The advance estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product and the September core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlights this week. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, driven by strong business investment and resilient consumer spending. Meanwhile, economists forecast the core PCE price index to rise +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y in September, accelerating from August on both a monthly and annual basis. Other noteworthy data releases include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., durable goods orders, core durable goods orders, new home sales, initial jobless claims, personal spending, personal income, the employment cost index, and the Chicago PMI.
Elsewhere, Apple (AAPL) will host a product launch event this week, where it is expected to unveil its first touchscreen MacBook, a new entry-level MacBook Pro powered by an M6 chip, an updated iMac, and a redesigned iPad mini with a sharper display.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 5.00%, down -0.12%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.62% this morning, kicking off a busy week on a positive note. Travel stocks were among the biggest gainers on Monday, benefiting from lower oil prices. Automobile, healthcare, and bank stocks also climbed. A survey released on Monday showed that German business morale rose for a sixth consecutive month in October, indicating that the country’s economic recovery remains on track despite the energy shock and higher borrowing costs. “The economic recovery is continuing,” said Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute. Meanwhile, French government bonds climbed on Monday, outperforming their Eurozone peers after the country avoided a credit rating downgrade from Moody’s Ratings. The agency maintained France’s rating on the assumption that the country would successfully pass a 2027 budget aimed at reducing its deficit. Investor focus this week is on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% following its second rate hike of the cycle last month. Market participants will closely watch President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for clues on another rate hike in December. Beyond monetary policy, attention will turn to a wave of corporate earnings reports and key economic releases, including the initial estimate of third-quarter Eurozone GDP and preliminary October inflation figures from individual Eurozone countries. In corporate news, Computacenter Plc (CCC.LN) surged over +7% after the technology services provider reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year profit guidance.
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index was released today.
The German October Ifo Business Climate Index stood at 90.2, stronger than expectations of 90.0.
Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index ($CHSC) closed up +0.19%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ($NKY) closed down -0.80%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher today, supported by gains in energy and consumer-related stocks. Still, the benchmark’s advance was limited as technology shares slumped, tracking losses among their regional peers. Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note on Sunday that Chinese stocks could face further downside before valuations bottom, as weakening economic growth and consumption momentum dampen sentiment. The analysts warned that mainland-listed stocks may fall to their historical valuation range of roughly 10 to 11 times forward earnings before finding support. Meanwhile, China’s ruling Communist Party opened its fifth plenum in Beijing on Monday, a gathering scheduled to run through Thursday and focus on concrete measures to achieve “full and rigorous party self-governance.” ING economists said investors will scrutinize the meeting’s communique for fresh policy signals. Investor attention this week is also on China’s PMI gauges for October. Economists expect the manufacturing PMI to hold steady at September’s level, staying in expansion territory, while growth in the non-manufacturing sector is projected to pick up, supported by spending during the National Day holiday. In addition, China’s September industrial profits data will draw attention, offering insight into earnings pressures facing industrial companies and their ability to invest.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today as investors rotated out of the AI trade amid caution ahead of major U.S. tech earnings this week. The rotation was also fueled in part by Goldman Sachs’ decision to cut its target for South Korea’s Kospi Index, widely seen as a barometer of the AI trade, by 25%. Chip-related stocks led the declines on Monday. Chip-testing equipment maker Advantest and chip gear maker Tokyo Electron both fell more than -3%, making them the biggest contributors to the benchmark’s decline. Still, most industry groups in the index advanced, led by energy and utilities, helping limit losses. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields were mixed on Monday as investors turned their attention to key central bank meetings this week, including the Bank of Japan’s. The BOJ is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.25% following its September hike, while keeping the door open to another increase at the end of the year. “Based on the BOJ’s recent communications, while there has been no change in its overall stance of continuing rate hikes, it has suggested that the next move is more likely to come at the December meeting,” said JPMorgan economist Ayako Fujita. Ahead of the BOJ’s decision, investors will closely watch Japan’s September industrial production and retail sales figures, along with October Tokyo core CPI. In corporate news, GMO Internet Group tanked over -15% after the company announced that it would compensate customers for losses from unauthorized access following an attack on its foreign exchange trading service. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -9.91% at 34.46.
The Japanese August Leading Index remained unrevised at 118.0, in line with expectations.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Some chip stocks edged higher in pre-market trading, with Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron Technology (MU) rising over +1%.
U.S.-listed shares of Brazilian companies and firms with exposure to the country tumbled in pre-market trading following leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s surprise election win. XP Inc. (XP) was down over -46%, Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) was down more than -22%, and Ambev (ABEV) was down over -13%.
Neocloud stocks declined in pre-market trading after SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk said lenders were pulling back from cloud-computing companies and that consolidation in the sector was inevitable. CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), and IREN Limited (IREN) fell -3% or more.
Rent the Runway (RENT) jumped more than +37% in pre-market trading after three large investors—Nexus Capital Management, Story3 Capital Partners, and CHS US Investments— increased their stakes in the company.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - October 26th
Verizon Communications (VZ), Welltower (WELL), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Public Storage (PSA), Nucor (NUE), The Hartford Insurance Group (HIG), Celestica (CLS), Cincinnati Financial (CINF), Brown & Brown (BRO), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Sun Communities (SUI), Amkor Technology (AMKR), Rambus (RMBS), Brixmor Property Group (BRX), Noble Corporation (NE), Simpson Manufacturing Co. (SSD), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Phillips Edison & Company (PECO), PriceSmart (PSMT), Dorman Products (DORM), Agilysys (AGYS), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), Bank of Hawaii (BOH), Hawkins (HWKN), H2O America (HTO), Northwest Bancshares (NWBI), Custom Truck One Source (CTOS), FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN), Whirlpool (WHR), Lakeland Financial (LKFN), HBT Financial (HBT), Piedmont Realty Trust (PDM), Easterly Government Properties (DEA), The Greenbrier Companies (GBX), Northeast Bank (NBN), Five Star Bancorp (FSBC), Business First Bancshares (BFST), Kforce (KFRC), TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX), Elevra Lithium (ELVR), Commercial Bancgroup (CBK), Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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