On the Fourth of July, America celebrates 250 years of freedom. The beloved American holiday, known for barbecues, fireworks, and patriotic celebrations, draws special attention this year as inflationary pressures may weigh on consumer spending. However, according to the latest projections, consumer activity is expected to remain steady.
Inside the Expected Consumer Spending
Total consumer spending for the Fourth of July holiday is expected to reach $9.4 billion, up from $8.9 billion in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation.
However, much of that growth is tied to higher participation associated with the nation’s 250th anniversary, while per-person spending is likely to rise by a more modest 2.1% year over year, well below the 4.2% annual inflation rate, as quoted on eMarketer.
About 86% of Americans plan to celebrate and spend an average of $94.41 per person this Independence Day. Cookouts, barbecues, and picnics continue to be the most popular activities (62%), followed by fireworks and community celebrations (44%).
Out of $14.8 billion of total spending, Americans spent $8.9 billion on food alone in 2025, per Capital One Shopping research. Consumers shelled out about $3.7 billion on alcohol (mostly beer) for July 4th in 2025. First Trust NASDAQ Food & Beverage ETF FTXG, and Invesco Food & Beverage ETF PBJ should thus be closely tracked.
Travel Trends
Travel is in full swing. About 13% will travel, and 12% will attend a parade, per NRF. AAA projects that 61.4 million people will travel by car over the July 4th week, nearly the same number as last year, when 61.3 million travelers took road trips. This is happening despite gas prices reaching four-year highs, per AAA.
Last year, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.15. This year, the national average stands at $4.80 heading into Independence Day.
Industries such as travel and leisure, lodging, and hospitality are poised to benefit the most. Investors aiming to capitalize on this growth can consider exposure through ETFs like ETFMG Travel Tech ETF AWAY, AdvisorShares Hotel ETF BEDZ, State Street SPDR S&P Transportation ETF XTN and U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS.
Retail Sector in Focus
Independence Day marks the beginning of the busiest half of the year for retailers. Many retailers are already offering exciting deals for the Fourth of July, and massive discounts are expected during the holiday weekend. Many brands and retailers are offering deep discounts of up to 65%, as quoted on NBC News. This puts the focus on VanEck Vectors Retail ETF RTH and State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF XLY.
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Amplify Travel Tech ETF (AWAY): ETF Research Reports
VanEck Retail ETF (RTH): ETF Research Reports
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY): ETF Research Reports
U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS): ETF Research Reports
State Street SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN): ETF Research Reports
Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ): ETF Research Reports
First Trust NASDAQ Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG): ETF Research Reports
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).