Raymond James RJF is set to announce third-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended June 30) results on July 22, after market close. The company’s earnings and revenues are expected to have risen on a year-over-year basis.
In the last reported quarter, RJF’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited primarily from an increase in revenues to record levels and robust growth in the assets under administration balance. However, higher expenses were the undermining factor.
Raymond James has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 2.7%.
Raymond James Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Raymond James Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Raymond James Financial, Inc. Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.91, unchanged over the past 30 days. The figure indicates an increase of 33.5% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for sales of $3.86 billion suggests 13.7% year-over-year growth.
Management expects fiscal third-quarter asset management and related administrative fees to grow 1% sequentially, driven by the impact of one additional billing day in the third quarter, along with slightly higher Private Client Group assets and fee-based accounts balance at quarter end.
Factors to Impact Raymond James’ Q3 Earnings
Investment Banking (IB) Fees: After an impressive performance in the last quarter, global deal-making activity moderated in the June-end quarter as geopolitical uncertainty, persistent valuation gaps, slowing economic growth, elevated inflation and interest rates, and a stubbornly high backlog of private equity exits weighed on transaction value. However, strategic buyers remained active, targeting deals that could expand scale, bolster resilience and strengthen supply-chain security amid the challenging operating environment.
So, while deal value fell as only a handful of big transactions dominated the space, the overall global mergers and acquisitions volume improved year over year. This is expected to have driven RJF’s advisory fees in the quarter.
Also, the quarter witnessed strong IPO activity and equity issuances. Global bond issuance volume was solid, driven by corporate refinancing and infrastructure builds. So, RJF’s underwriting fees are expected to have increased on a year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s total IB fees for the fiscal third-quarter is pegged at $231 million, indicating a 9% increase on a year-over-year basis.
Trading Revenues: The performance of RJF’s trading business is expected to have been strong in the to-be-reported quarter, supported by increased client activity and market volatility. Trading conditions were shaped by evolving expectations surrounding artificial intelligence, ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflationary pressures and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. These factors contributed to heightened volatility across equities and other asset classes, including commodities, fixed income and foreign exchange.
Net Interest Income (NII): The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the June-end quarter, while signaling a hike later in the year because of persistently high inflation. This created a favorable backdrop for Raymond James.
Also, the overall lending scenario improved in the quarter, which, along with stabilizing funding/deposit costs, is expected to have offered the much-needed support to RJF’s NII.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $560 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 2.6%.
Based on static interest rates and assuming unchanged quarter-end balances, net of the fiscal third-quarter fee billing collection of $1.9 billion, management expects the aggregate of NII and RJBDP third-party fees in the third fiscal quarter to inch up 1% sequentially.
Expenses: Raymond James consistently hires advisors and invests in franchises. Thus, overall expenses are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter. Due to a highly competitive environment and inflationary pressure, expenses are likely to have risen.
Key Development During the Quarter
In May, Raymond James completed the acquisition of Clark Capital Management Group, a Philadelphia-based asset management company with more than $46 billion in discretionary assets under management and non-discretionary assets. The deal was announced in January.
Per the agreement, Clark Capital retained its brand name and is continuing as a separate boutique investment manager in Raymond James Investment Management, an asset management unit of Raymond James and a global multi-boutique platform.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for Raymond James
According to our proven model, the chances of RJF beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Raymond James is -0.18%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Finance Stocks Worth Considering
Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS is scheduled to announce quarterly numbers on July 22. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.50% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Quarterly earnings estimates for NTRS have been revised upward to $2.68 per share over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares PB is +1.76%, and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PB’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.54 per share.
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Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF): Free Stock Analysis Report
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS): Free Stock Analysis Report
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).