Although Moderna MRNA initially established itself as a leading COVID-19 vaccine maker, the company is focused on broadening its commercial portfolio to reduce its reliance on pandemic-era demand. Moderna’s expansion into other respiratory vaccine categories offers an avenue for growth, but competing against established players in these markets could prove challenging.
A Broader Respiratory Portfolio Creates New Growth Opportunities
Moderna’s respiratory business is gradually evolving beyond its COVID-19 vaccine franchise. It has expanded into RSV with mResvia and recently entered the seasonal influenza market with mFlusiva. The company has also expanded its portfolio to combination vaccines with mCombriax, which received EU approval in April 2026 as the first combination vaccine protecting against both influenza and COVID-19.
mFlusiva is now available in the United States for the 2026/2027 vaccination season, while Moderna is preparing to launch mCombriax in Europe next year. Management views Europe as a significant growth opportunity, particularly as a competitor’s COVID-19 vaccine contract is set to expire at the end of 2026. The company is also seeking broader international reach through long-term partnerships and regulatory expansion in markets outside the United States. Moderna is awaiting FDA guidance on refiling mCombriax, leaving another potential avenue to extend the combination-vaccine franchise.
However, COVID-19 vaccines are expected to remain the key driver of Moderna’s top-line revenues in the near term, given their established commercial base. The newer products offer opportunities to diversify revenues over time, but their contribution will depend on uptake and successful commercialization.
Moderna is also making significant progress beyond vaccines. It recently made a breakthrough in oncology, reporting positive results from a phase III study evaluating its investigational mRNA-based cancer therapy developed in collaboration with Merck. The study met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival in certain melanoma patients. Detailed results are expected later this month.
Moderna Faces Stiff Competition in Targeted Markets
Moderna continues to face stiff competition in the COVID-19 vaccine market, where it competes with Pfizer PFE/BioNTech BNTX and Sanofi/Novavax. As demand for COVID-19 vaccines has normalized, maintaining market share remains important to the company’s respiratory business. Competition could intensify further in the combination vaccines market as manufacturers develop products targeting both influenza and COVID-19, potentially increasing pressure on pricing and market share.
In RSV, Moderna’s mResvia competes with Pfizer’s Abrysvo and GSK’s GSK Arexvy. The seasonal influenza market presents another challenge, with mFlusiva entering a market dominated by established players such as Sanofi, CSL Seqirus and GSK. Competition could become more intense as GSK advances its own mRNA-based flu vaccine following positive phase II results.
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