Ford F is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and automotive revenues is pegged at 39 cents and $45.67 billion, respectively.
The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has moved down by 2 cents over the past 30 days. The bottom line suggests a year-over-year decline of 13.3%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a 3.2% contraction from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s automotive revenues is pegged at $176 billion, suggesting a modest increase of roughly 1% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year EPS is $1.86, implying 71% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for 2027 EPS points to 1.4% growth from the projected 2026 levels.
Notably, Ford surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once.
Ford Motor Company Price and EPS Surprise
Ford Motor Company price-eps-surprise | Ford Motor Company Quote
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Ford has an Earnings ESP of +2.34% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors at Play
Ford’s third-quarter vehicle sales in the United States were 509,764 vehicles, down 6.6%. The decline was largely due to planned portfolio changes, such as retiring the Escape and Corsair. While demand for large SUVs, including the Explorer and Expedition, along with sales of the F-Series, Maverick and Super Duty trucks, is expected to have supported revenues and product mix, sales of EVs tanked 80% year over year in the third quarter. Notably, a supplier issue halted F-150 production from Sept. 24 to 30, but Ford says the impact is containable within its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance of $10-$11 billion.
Ford was the third-largest selling automaker in the country, behind General Motors GM and Toyota TM. General Motors' third-quarter deliveries fell around 6% year over year to 670, 974 units. Toyota sold 633,223 vehicles in the third quarter, up 0.6% year over year. Like Ford, General Motors also witnessed a huge drop in EV sales during the quarter, whereas Toyota’s electrified vehicle sales, including hybrids, increased 28.5%.
Key Metrics: What the Estimates Say
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s wholesale unit sales in the third quarter of 2026 is 1,100,000 units, down from 1,156,000 units in the corresponding quarter of 2025. The consensus mark for automotive revenues in the quarter to be reported is pegged at $45.15 billion, implying a 4.3% year-over-year decline.
Ford faces volatile input and trade costs, which are expected to have dented margins in the quarter-to-be-reported. The consensus mark for adjusted EBIT for Ford Blue and Ford Pro segments is $1.28 billion and $1.81 billion, implying a year-over-year contraction of 16.8% and 8.7%, respectively. Ford Model e remains a drag, and the consensus estimate points to an adjusted loss before interest and taxes of $1.2 billion for the segment.
Ford’s Price Performance & Valuation
Year to date, shares of F have declined 11.6%, outperforming the industry,
F appears undervalued now and carries a Value Score of A. The company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.26, way lower than the industry.
How to Play Ford Ahead of Earnings
Ford has long-term positives. Ford Pro is expanding, with commercial vehicles, software subscriptions and services generating recurring, higher-margin revenues. The growing Ford Energy opportunity and solid liquidity also support future growth.
The near term looks tougher, though. Management expects 2026 commodity costs to exceed $2 billion, which could wipe out gains from pricing, mix and operations if inflation lingers or trade rules turn less favorable. Model e losses are narrowing but continue to hurt overall profits, with a full-year 2026 loss of about $4 billion expected. This includes roughly $1 billion of added investment in the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy.
The Novelis aluminum disruption adds pressure by limiting volumes of high-margin F-Series and Ford Pro vehicles. Ford took about $800 million in temporary Novelis-related costs in the first half of 2026 and now expects a full-year hit of about $1.5 billion.
Given these headwinds, investors may be better off avoiding or selling Ford stock ahead of its third-quarter report.
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Ford Motor Company (F): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).