Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. quarterly report, Q3 FY2020

Business context and reporting period

This is Cerecor Inc.’s unaudited Form 10-Q for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2020. The filing identifies the registrant as Cerecor Inc., not Avalo Therapeutics; verify the company and filing identity against the intended issuer. Cerecor described itself as a biopharmaceutical company developing treatments for rare and orphan diseases. In February 2020, it acquired rights to CERC-002, CERC-006 and CERC-007 through its Aevi merger. Millipred was its remaining commercial product after the 2019 sale of its pediatric portfolio to Aytu.

Financial performance and position

MetricQ3 2020Q3 2019Nine months 2020Nine months 2019
Revenue$1.11 million$2.20 million$5.20 million$6.17 million
Loss from continuing operations$13.26 million$2.93 million$48.24 million$10.64 million
Net loss$13.46 million$4.02 million$47.86 million$17.69 million
Net loss per common share$0.17$0.07$0.68$0.31
Cash used in operating activitiesNot separately reported for the quarterNot separately reported for the quarter$26.16 million$17.45 million

Q3 research and development expense was $8.87 million versus $1.74 million; general and administrative expense was $4.57 million versus $2.64 million. For the nine-month period, R&D was $19.56 million, G&A $13.35 million, and acquired in-process R&D expense $25.55 million, principally from the Aevi asset acquisition. The filing does not provide a clear consolidated operating-margin figure.

At September 30, 2020, cash and cash equivalents were $33.39 million ($33.67 million including restricted cash), total current assets $41.03 million, total current liabilities $16.57 million, total assets $59.19 million, total liabilities $20.62 million, and stockholders’ equity $38.57 million. The company reported no conventional long-term debt balance in the presented balance sheet; it did report a $2.0 million royalty obligation, $1.93 million of other long-term liabilities, and a $0.4 million PPP loan that it recognized as other income based on its belief that the loan qualified for forgiveness. Cash increased by $29.94 million over the nine months, supported by $44.58 million of financing cash flow and $11.52 million of investing cash flow.

Revenue consisted primarily of prescription product sales. Q3 and nine-month revenue declined year over year, substantially because 2019 included Ulesfia sales while 2020 reflected Millipred alone. Three customers accounted for approximately 40%, 24% and 34% of Q3 continuing-operations product revenue; concentration remained high over the nine months at approximately 43%, 28% and 27%.

Material changes and management outlook

  • Revenue fell while net losses and operating cash use increased, reflecting expanded pipeline investment, higher staffing and the $25.55 million Aevi-related acquired IPR&D charge. The $5.21 million gain on the Aytu investment sale and $2.61 million income tax benefit partly offset reported losses over the nine months.
  • Cerecor raised approximately $44.5 million net through 2020 equity offerings and a private placement, and received approximately $12.8 million from selling its Aytu shares. Common shares outstanding increased from 44.38 million at year-end 2019 to 74.90 million at September 30, 2020.
  • Management expected R&D spending to remain above historical levels as the expanded pipeline advanced. At filing time, the CERC-002 proof-of-concept study in COVID-19 ARDS was enrolling patients, with top-line data expected in Q4 2020. The company also cited CERC-800 programs for congenital disorders of glycosylation and other rare-disease candidates.
  • Teva gave notice that the Millipred license and supply agreement would terminate effective April 1, 2021. Cerecor could sell inventory on hand at that date for six months afterward; negotiations to extend the agreement were ongoing, with no assurance of an extension. The company was exploring a possible out-license or sale of Millipred and non-core assets.
  • Management stated that substantial doubt existed about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the financial statements were issued. It expected continued losses and said additional financing, asset sales, licensing, collaborations or grants might be required; there was no assurance these options would be available on acceptable terms. Failure to obtain sufficient funding could force spending reductions or suspension or curtailment of programs.
  • Other notable items include a $0.9 million payment to settle disputes with former TRx owners; a $2.6 million nine-month tax benefit related to loss carrybacks under the CARES Act; and an estimated $1.5 million reserve for returns on the divested pediatric portfolio. Cerecor also remained exposed to a guarantee of certain Aytu obligations; based on Aytu’s most recently reported information, the filing estimated maximum potential future payments at $7.3 million.
  • Potential unrecognized contingent payments included up to $6.5 million tied to Aevi development milestones and up to $15.0 million tied to Ichorion asset milestones. No such contingent consideration was recognized as of September 30, 2020.

Most important facts to verify

  1. Confirm whether Cerecor Inc. is the intended issuer, given the request metadata names Avalo Therapeutics.
  2. Check the subsequent status and actual results of the CERC-002 COVID-19 ARDS study and the other pipeline programs; the stated Q4 2020 data timing was an expectation, not a reported outcome.
  3. Verify whether Teva’s Millipred termination took effect, whether the agreement was extended, and whether Millipred was licensed or sold.
  4. Assess financing raised after September 30, 2020, cash burn and runway, and whether the going-concern uncertainty was resolved.
  5. Review subsequent Aytu payments and Cerecor’s remaining guarantee exposure, including pediatric product return obligations.
  6. Confirm PPP loan forgiveness and any later recognition, payment or dilution associated with contingent milestones and equity awards.