CCEP

Business Context and Reporting Period

Company: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Plc (CCEP)
Filing Type: Form 6-K (Trading Update)
Reporting Period: First Quarter ended 28 March 2025
Context: This report provides Q1 2025 trading highlights, including revenue and volume performance, and declares an interim dividend. Financial metrics are presented on both "As Reported" and "Adjusted Comparable" bases. The "Adjusted Comparable" basis assumes the acquisition of Coca-Cola Beverages Philippines, Inc. (CCBPI) occurred at the beginning of the period to ensure comparability. The period included two fewer selling days than Q1 2024.

Key Financial Metrics

Note: The filing does not provide specific figures for net profit, operating profit, cash flow, debt levels, or liquidity ratios for the period.

Material Changes vs. Prior Period

• Revenue Growth: Reported revenue increased 5.0% year-over-year, driven largely by the inclusion of CCBPI. On an adjusted comparable basis, revenue declined 0.9%.
• Volume Performance: Adjusted comparable volume declined 0.6% overall. Europe saw a 2.1% decline, while APS grew 2.1%.
• Pricing: Revenue per unit case increased 3.1% on an adjusted comparable basis, reflecting positive headline pricing and promotional optimization.
• Geographic Mix:
  • Europe: Volume decline driven by strategic de-listing of Capri Sun (fully annualized from Q2) and Easter timing. France and Iberia saw price increases.
  • APS: Growth driven by the Philippines (strong demand for Coca-Cola Original Taste and water) and Pacific Islands, offset by declines in Australia (cyclone impact) and Indonesia (weaker macro backdrop).
• Category Performance: Energy drinks (Monster) grew 11.9%. Coca-Cola Classic declined 2.0% (cycling strong prior year), while Coca-Cola Zero Sugar grew 4.0%. RTD Tea & Coffee declined 9.9% due to Frestea weakness in Indonesia.

Guidance, Outlook, and Risks

• Dividend Guidance: Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance for an annualized total dividend payout ratio of approximately 50% of comparable profit after tax.
• Outlook: Management anticipates stronger comparable volume in April due to Easter timing, supporting Year-to-Date performance largely in line with expectations.
• Sustainability: Retained inclusion on the Carbon Disclosure Project's A List for Climate for the 9th consecutive year; announced investment in Avalo (AI for carbon footprint reduction) and opened a new returnable glass bottle line in France.
• Risks and Contingencies:
  • Forward-looking statements are subject to risks including adverse weather (e.g., cyclones), geopolitical instability (Middle East), and macroeconomic deterioration.
  • Operational risks include raw material cost increases, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory changes regarding packaging and taxes (e.g., sugar tax in France).
  • Strategic risks involve the execution of the CCBPI acquisition integration and maintaining brand image.

Investor Verification Checklist

• Adjusted Metrics: Verify the reconciliation between "As Reported" and "Adjusted Comparable" figures, noting that adjusted data assumes the CCBPI acquisition occurred at the start of the period.
• Selling Day Impact: Confirm the impact of the two fewer selling days in Q1 2025 versus Q1 2024 on volume calculations (excluding this shift, volume would be down 3.9% for CCEP).
• Capri Sun De-listing: Assess the long-term revenue impact of the strategic de-listing of Capri Sun in Europe, which is fully annualized from Q2 2025.
• Dividend Payout: Monitor the final FY25 dividend payout ratio against the ~50% guidance, dependent on full-year comparable profit after tax.
• Geopolitical Exposure: Review exposure to Indonesia and the Middle East given cited macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.