Business Context and Reporting Period
Company: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Plc (CCEP)
Filing Type: Form 6-K (Trading Update)
Reporting Period: First Quarter ended April 3, 2026
Business Overview: CCEP is a leading consumer goods company operating in 31 countries, bottling and selling beverages for nearly 600 million consumers. The company reported a "good start to the year" with balanced topline delivery, driven by solid comparable volume growth and share gains.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Q1 2026 Value | Change vs Prior Year |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Revenue | €5,001 million | +6.7% |
| FX-Neutral Revenue | €5,132 million (implied) | +9.4% |
| Reported Volume | 970 million UC | +8.5% |
| Comparable Volume | N/A | +1.6% |
| Revenue per Unit Case (UC) | €5.29 | +0.8% |
| Interim Dividend | €0.82 per share | Declared (Payable May 27, 2026) |
| Share Buyback | €500 million | Completed to date (of €1bn target) |
Note: Volume includes six additional consumption days versus the comparative period. Comparable volume growth is calculated on an Average Daily Sales (ADS) basis.
Material Changes vs. Prior Period
- Revenue Growth: Reported revenue increased 6.7% year-over-year, with FX-neutral growth of 9.4%. Europe contributed €3,549m (+9.1% reported, +9.8% FXN), while APS contributed €1,452m (+1.1% reported, +8.6% FXN).
- Volume Dynamics: Reported volume rose 8.5%, but comparable volume growth was 1.6% (Europe +1.4%, APS +1.9%). Growth was supported by an earlier Easter and calendar phasing.
- Category Performance: The "Other inc. Energy" category saw the strongest volume growth at +9.2%, driven by a 21.3% increase in Energy drinks. Coca-Cola Zero Sugar grew 10%.
- Geographic Shifts: Southeast Asia reported a 3.4% decline in FX-neutral revenue due to mix impacts, though volumes grew low single-digits. Australia/Pacific revenue per UC declined 0.3% due to the exit of Suntory alcohol distribution.
Guidance, Outlook, and Risks
Full-Year 2026 Guidance (Reaffirmed)
- Revenue: Comparable growth of 3% to 4% (FX-neutral).
- Operating Profit: Comparable growth of approximately 7%.
- Cost of Sales per UC: Comparable growth of approximately 1.5%.
- CAPEX: Approximately 5% of revenue.
- Free Cash Flow: Comparable free cash flow of at least €1.7 billion.
- Dividend Payout Ratio: Approximately 50% of comparable EPS.
- Share Buyback: Up to €1 billion for the year (subject to shareholder approval).
Management Commentary & Risks
Management highlighted resilience despite a challenging consumer environment and uncertainty regarding the situation in the Middle East. Key strategic focuses include pricing management, efficiency, and investment in technology, AI, and new infrastructure (e.g., a new plant in the Philippines). The company noted the impact of the Suntory alcohol distribution exit in Australia and New Zealand, which is expected to reduce FY26 group revenue by approximately 0.5%.
Risks: Forward-looking statements are subject to risks including changes in marketplace conditions, raw material costs, geopolitical instability, regulatory changes (e.g., sugar taxes), and climate-related factors.
Investor Verification Checklist
- Volume Adjustments: Verify the impact of the six additional consumption days in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025 on reported volume figures.
- Suntory Exit Impact: Confirm the full-year revenue impact (~0.5%) and margin implications of the Suntory alcohol distribution exit in Australia and New Zealand.
- FX Sensitivity: Assess the divergence between reported revenue growth (+6.7%) and FX-neutral growth (+9.4%) to understand currency headwinds.
- Dividend Sustainability: Review the cash flow generation required to support the reaffirmed ~50% payout ratio and €1bn buyback program.
- Category Mix: Monitor the sustainability of double-digit growth in the Energy category and the offsetting decline in Coca-Cola Original Taste in France due to sugar tax.