Can Petrobras' Pre-Salt Dominance Keep Driving Strong Growth? (Revised)

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Can Petrobras' Pre-Salt Dominance Keep Driving Strong Growth? (Revised)

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras’ PBR dominance in Brazil’s pre-salt oil fields continues to underpin its long-term growth, and current trends suggest this advantage is far from fading. Its pre-salt assets remain highly productive, driving an 11% production increase in 2025 despite weaker oil prices. Giant fields such as Búzios and Mero consistently deliver strong output in the pre-salt fields.

A key strength lies in the economics of these assets. With breakeven costs often below $40 per barrel — and expected to decline further — pre-salt projects remain resilient even in volatile pricing environments. Their light, low-sulfur crude also lowers refining costs and emissions, aligning profitability with sustainability goals.

During the fourth quarter of 2025, pre-salt oil production was 2.1 thousand barrels per day, flat sequentially. Increased downtime from maintenance in the Santos Basin weighed on production, but this was largely offset by higher capacity from FPSOs Almirante Tamandaré and Marechal Duque de Caxias, along with the ramp-up of Alexandre de Gusmão and new well start-ups. Overall, pre-salt volumes accounted for 82% of the company’s total production.

Looking ahead, Petrobras is doubling down on pre-salt, allocating nearly 60% of its exploration and production capex to these assets and planning multiple new production systems by 2029.

Overall, Petrobras is well-positioned to continue benefiting from pre-salt fields. Its scale, low costs and consistent discoveries provide a durable foundation for sustained production growth, strong cash flows and long-term competitiveness.

Two Other Oil Giants With Pre-Salt Investment

BP p.l.c. BP is strengthening its upstream portfolio with disciplined investments, leveraging a deep resource base to drive sustained growth. A key focus is BP’s Bumerangue discovery in Brazil’s pre-salt region — its largest global find in 25 years. While still in early exploration, initial results indicate a substantial hydrocarbon column and high liquid volumes. In 2025, BP advanced its upstream strategy with strong operational reliability, multiple project start-ups and new discoveries, reinforcing the strategic importance of pre-salt assets in boosting long-term production and cash flow.

Shell plc SHEL is deepening its presence in Brazil’s pre-salt sector, where it ranks as the second-largest producer. Shell plays a key role in the Atapu field in the Santos Basin, using advanced technologies to efficiently access reserves beneath thick salt layers. Its pre-salt growth pipeline includes major FPSO-led projects like Mero 3 and 4. In 2025, Shell sanctioned the Gato do Mato deepwater project and increased its stakes in Atapu and Mero, strengthening its long-term position in Brazil’s high-potential pre-salt assets.

The Zacks Rundown on Petrobras

ADS of Petrobras have surged 74.8% in the past three months compared with the Oil/Energy sector’s gain of 28.6%.

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From a valuation perspective — in terms of Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio — Petrobras is trading at a discount compared with the industry average, making it attractive for investors as more upside is still left in the stock.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate implies 18.9% year-over-year growth in Petrobras’ 2026 earnings per share. This anticipated growth aligns with the optimism embedded in the stock’s current price. In other words, investors are paying up for Petrobras at a point when the fundamentals of the company are expected to accelerate.

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PBR stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

(We are reissuing this article to correct a mistake. The original article, issued on April 8, 2026, should no longer be relied upon.)

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BP p.l.c. (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (PBR): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR (SHEL): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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