The Progressive Corporation PGR is expected to witness an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2026 results on April 15, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $22.6 billion, indicating 9.7% growth from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.77 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s first-quarter earnings witnessed no movement in the past seven days. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 2.6%.
Decent Earnings Surprise History
Progressive’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, the average negative surprise being 1.61%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for PGR
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: PGR has an Earnings ESP of +0.49%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.79 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.77.
The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Progressive Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Progressive Corporation Quote
Zacks Rank: PGR carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Shape Q1 Results
First-quarter revenues are likely to have been driven by higher premiums, increased net investment income, and stronger fee and service income. Its performance is expected to have been supported by improvements in both personal auto products and commercial lines.
Net premiums earned are likely to have been driven by a strong product lineup, market-leading position, and solid performance in the Vehicle and Property segments, along with healthy policies in force and strong retention. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $21.1 billion, indicating an 8.8% increase from the year-ago reported number.
Progressive’s personal auto segment likely saw gains from increased volumes of both new and renewal applications, largely supported by higher advertising investment, competitive pricing strategies, and agency incentive programs. Growth in policies was likely driven by both the agency channel and the direct auto business. The consensus estimate for personal auto policies in force is pegged at 38.2 million.
A larger invested asset base is likely to have aided improvement in net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $935.6 million, indicating an increase of 15% from the year-ago reported number.
The insurer is likely to have benefited from pretax net realized gains on securities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $58.9 million.
Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have increased expenses. The consensus mark for expense ratio is pegged at 20.64.
Prudent underwriting, coupled with a not-so-active cat environment, is likely to have aided improvement in the combined ratio. The consensus mark for combined ratio is pegged at 87.22.
Other Stocks to Consider
Some other P&C insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
Arch Capital Group ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +0.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $2.47 per share, indicating a 60.4% year-over-year increase.
ACGL earnings beat estimates in the last four reported quarters.
RenaissanceRe RNR has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $11.35 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 75.5%.
RNR’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Chubb Limited CB has an Earnings ESP of +2.26% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $6.46 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 75.5%.
CB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
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Chubb Limited (CB): Free Stock Analysis Report
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR): Free Stock Analysis Report
The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Free Stock Analysis Report
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).