Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Royalty Pharma?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Royalty Pharma (RPRX) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.25 a share, just 29 days from its upcoming earnings release on May 14, 2026.
RPRX has an Earnings ESP figure of +2.05%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.25 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.22. Royalty Pharma is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
RPRX is part of a big group of Medical stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Idexx Laboratories (IDXX) as well.
Idexx Laboratories, which is readying to report earnings on May 5, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $3.45 a share, and IDXX is 20 days out from its next earnings report.
Idexx Laboratories' Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.79% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.42.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, RPRX and IDXX could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Royalty Pharma PLC (RPRX)?
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Royalty Pharma PLC (RPRX): Free Stock Analysis Report
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (IDXX): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).