Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, before the opening bell.
HLT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.7%.
Trend in Estimate Revision of HLT
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.96, indicating growth of 14% from $1.72 reported in the year-ago quarter.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $2.98 billion. The metric suggests a 10.5% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Hilton’s Q1 Results
Hilton’s first-quarter 2026 performance is likely to reflect a stable demand environment, supported by strength across key travel segments and continued resilience in its asset-light business model. The company is likely to have benefited from robust group demand, alongside steady leisure activity and improving business-transient trends. This backdrop is anticipated to have supported modest growth in system-wide comparable RevPAR, projected to increase between 1% and 2% year over year.
Group demand is expected to have been the primary driver of top-line performance during the quarter. Management highlighted solid in-month group bookings and maintained that group remains the strongest-performing segment entering 2026. This strength, coupled with stable leisure demand and a gradual recovery in corporate travel, is likely to have supported both occupancy and pricing in the to-be reported quarter.
Hilton’s fee-driven, capital-light model is expected to have underpinned bottom-line performance in the first quarter. Continued unit expansion, supported by a robust development pipeline and sustained conversion activity, likely contributed to growth in management and franchise fees. Our model predicts first-quarter revenues from Franchise and Licensing Fees to rise 1% year over year to $630.6 million. We expect revenues from Base and Other Management Fees to rise 3.5% year over year to $91.1 million.
In addition, non-RevPAR-driven revenue streams, including the company’s co-branded credit card and other commercial businesses, are anticipated to have supported the bottom line in the first quarter.
However, the quarterly performance is likely to have reflected some headwinds. Management indicated that recent storms in the United States are expected to have weighed on RevPAR growth, creating near-term disruption to demand. Additionally, the U.S. market is anticipated to have grown at a slower pace relative to international regions, while China demand likely remained constrained due to weaker group activity. Calendar-related complexities and uneven regional trends are likely to have introduced variability in performance, potentially limiting operating leverage.
From an earnings perspective, Hilton expects first-quarter diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.87 to $1.93, with adjusted EPS projected between $1.91 and $1.97. Net income is anticipated to be between $436 million and $450 million, while adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $875 million to $895 million.
Overall, Hilton’s first-quarter 2026 results are expected to reflect steady operating momentum, with strong group demand, resilient leisure trends and continued unit growth supporting performance, while weather-related disruptions and softer U.S. demand trends act as moderating factors.
What Our Model Says About HLT Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Hilton this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for HLT: Hilton has an Earnings ESP of +2.40%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Hilton’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Choice Hotels International, Inc. CHH has an Earnings ESP of +4.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Choice Hotels is expected to register a 1.5% decrease in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. CHH reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average miss being 0.7%.
Marriott International, Inc. MAR currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
MAR’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 11.6%. Marriott reported better-than-expected earnings in the trailing three out of four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 0.7%.
Mattel, Inc. MAT currently has an Earnings ESP of +20.83% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
MAT’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline 700%. Mattel reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average surprise being 12.5%.
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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): Free Stock Analysis Report
Mattel, Inc. (MAT): Free Stock Analysis Report
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH): Free Stock Analysis Report
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).