Valero Energy Corporation VLO is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, before the opening bell.
In the last reported quarter, VLO’s adjusted earnings of $3.82 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.22 due to an increase in refining margins, higher ethanol production volumes and lower total cost of sales. The positives were partially offset by a decline in renewable diesel margins.
The leading refiner beat earnings estimates in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 45.4%. This is depicted in the graph below.
Valero Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Valero Energy Corporation price-eps-surprise | Valero Energy Corporation Quote
VLO’s Estimate Trend
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share of $2.97 has witnessed one upward revision with no downward revision in the past seven days. The consensus estimate implies an improvement of 233.7% from the year-ago reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $30.88 billion indicates a 2.1% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Factors to Consider for VLO
As a leading downstream energy company, VLO utilizes a robust, versatile refinery network to convert diverse crude feedstocks into high-value products.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggest that despite a sharp price spike in March, the first quarter of 2026 remained favorable for Valero Energy Corporation. According to the EIA, January and February saw relatively low crude prices, with Cushing, OK, WTI Spot Price averaging $60.04 and $64.51 per barrel, respectively, marking significant declines from $75.74 and $71.53 per barrel in the same months of 2025. This may have reduced feedstock costs and supported stronger refining margins for VLO.
Prices surged to $91.38 per barrel in March from $68.24 per barrel in the year-ago month due to Middle East tensions. This is likely to have compressed margins later in the quarter. However, the profitability achieved in the earlier months is expected to have supported VLO’s overall quarterly performance.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for VLO this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: VLO has an Earnings ESP of +3.23%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Shell plc SHEL currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.56% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Shell is set to release first-quarter earnings on May 7, 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHEL’s earnings is pegged at $1.78 per share, indicating a 3.3% decline from the prior-year reported figure.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY currently has an Earnings ESP of +17.92% and a Zacks Rank #1.
Occidental Petroleum is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 5, 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OXY’s earnings is pegged at 62 cents per share, suggesting a 28.7% decline from the prior-year reported figure.
BP plc BP currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.13% and a Zacks Rank #2.
BP is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on April 28, 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BP’s earnings is pegged at 91 cents per share, suggesting a 71.7% improvement from the prior-year reported figure.
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BP p.l.c. (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).