Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at Murphy Oil (MUR), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Murphy Oil currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of "A or B" outperform the market over the following one-month period.
You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>
Set to Beat the Market?
In order to see if MUR is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this oil and gas producer holds up.
A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.
For MUR, shares are up 9.9% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is up 2.68% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 9% compares favorably with the industry's 2.63% performance as well.
Considering longer term price metrics, like performance over the last three months or year, can be advantageous as well. Shares of Murphy Oil have increased 22.62% over the past quarter, and have gained 87.05% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved 7.88% and 25.61%, respectively.
Investors should also pay attention to MUR's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. MUR is currently averaging 1,658,432 shares for the last 20 days.
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score also takes into account trends in estimate revisions, in addition to price changes. Please note that estimate revision trends remain at the core of Zacks Rank as well. A nice path here can help show promise, and we have recently been seeing that with MUR.
Over the past two months, 7 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost MUR's consensus estimate, increasing from $0.62 to $3.38 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 7 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom Line
Given these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that MUR is a #2 (Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of B. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Murphy Oil on your short list.
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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).