It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mondelez (MDLZ). Shares have added about 2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mondelez due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Mondelez Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Up 8.2% Y/Y
Mondelez International posted first-quarter 2026 results. Adjusted earnings were 67 cents per share, which decreased 14.9% on a constant-currency (cc) basis. The decline was caused by weaker operating performance and higher income taxes, partially offset by lower interest and other expenses, as well as a reduced share count. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents per share.
Net revenues rose 8.2% year over year to $10,080 million, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9,790 million. This growth was driven by favorable currency-related factors and underlying organic net revenue gains, partially offset by the absence of prior-year revenues from a divestiture. Organic net revenues rose 3% year over year in the first quarter, primarily driven by pricing, which contributed 3.5 percentage points, while volume/mix declined 0.5 percentage points.
Revenues from emerging markets increased 11.4% year over year to $4,149 million, with organic growth of 6.3%. Growth in these markets was supported by strong results in India and Brazil, along with solid growth in China and Southeast Asia. These gains reflect continued focus on expanding distribution and strengthening consumer engagement.
Revenues from developed markets increased 6.1% year over year to $5,931 million, with organic growth of 0.8%. Growth was supported by gradual improvement across key regions. In North America, growth was modest, with the U.S. biscuit business showing sequential improvement. Region-wise, revenues jumped 12.1% in Latin America and 14.3% in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, 9% in Europe and 0.5% in North America. On an organic basis, revenues rose 11.3% in AMEA, 5.1% in Latin America, 0.5% in North America and fell 0.6% in Europe.
MDLZ's Costs & Margins
Adjusted gross profit decreased 5.4% on a cc basis, while adjusted gross profit margin declined 270 basis points to 30.7%, mainly due to elevated input cost inflation and unfavorable volume/mix. These pressures were partly mitigated by higher pricing and lower manufacturing costs driven by productivity gains.
Adjusted operating income decreased 19% on a cc basis, with adjusted operating margin decreasing 310 basis points to 11.7%. The decline was caused by elevated input costs, unfavorable volume/mix, increased advertising and consumer promotion spending, and higher selling, general, and administrative expenses. These were partially offset by higher pricing and lower manufacturing costs from productivity improvements.
Mondelez’s Financial Health Snapshot
MDLZ ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1,524 million and total debt of $21,024 million. For the three months ended March 31, 2026, the company generated $467 million in net cash from operating activities and delivered free cash flow of $155 million. During the quarter, the company returned $0.6 billion to its shareholders through dividends.
What to Expect From MDLZ in 2026?
For 2026, the company reaffirmed its guidance for organic net revenue growth in the range of flat to 2% and adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5% on a constant currency basis. Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $3 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mondelez has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. However, the stock has a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Mondelez has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).