Bear of the Day: Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

Akamai Technologies ( AKAM) is a $22 billion global provider of content delivery networks (CDN), cybersecurity and cloud infrastructure services.

The company’s solutions accelerate and improve the delivery of content over the Internet, enabling faster response to requests for web pages, streaming of video & audio, and business applications.

Its offerings are intended to reduce the impact of traffic congestion, bandwidth constraints and capacity limitations on customers, with the data-hog of high-definition video a particular specialty.

I last profiled Akamai one year ago after their Q1 2025 report saw analysts take down growth estimates. Here were three overarching points I made at the time...

Revenue growth stalls under 5% and earnings go negative for key provider of content delivery networks (CDNs).

Potential may still exist for AKAM to thrive in burgeoning AI economy if they develop new growth drivers.

With explosive "AI Economy" growth in datacenter businesses, AKAM is overlooked even under 3X sales because there is so much more potential to offer in other names and industry niches.

4 Quarters Later, Growth Tries a Comeback

Starting with their Q3 report in November, the turnaround became evident to investors and analysts and AKAM shares were re-rated higher, from purgatory below $80 all the way up to $120 after their Q4 report in February.

Then the Q1 2026 report confirmed the good news and AKAM jumped 26.5% on May 8 and proceeded to breach $160 a week later.

The company reported 6% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by strong demand for Guardicore Segmentation and API security, with solid momentum in cloud infrastructure services. 

However, huge investments in GPUs, colocation and cloud infrastructure are still pressuring the bottom line.

So that's why AKAM is back in the cellar of the Zacks Rank. In the past two months, the Zacks Consensus EPS for 2026 has fallen from $6.93 to $6.74 as analysts revised their growth estimates lower.

That represents a 5.34% annual loss vs 2025.

$1.8 Billion AI Infrastructure Deal

After the report, Bank of America analyst Tal Liani upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and raised his price target to $175 from $130. Liani noted...

“The story has shifted from a legacy delivery network to a credible AI infrastructure platform. Large cloud infrastructure wins, including a $1.8 billion, 7-year deal, signal real demand for distributed AI, not just narrative.”

In their Q1 presentation, Akamai announced that a "leading frontier model provider" had committed $1.8 billion for its cloud infrastructure services over seven years.

Bloomberg later reported that the customer was AI startup Anthropic, though neither company publicly confirmed the report.

Liani estimates the agreement will contribute between $20 million and $25 million in quarterly revenue beginning in the fourth quarter.

The Bank of America team acknowledged that Akamai’s AI expansion will require substantial investment, citing that capital expenditures could rise to as much as $825 million over the next year as the company expands infrastructure capacity.

Consequently, free cash flow is projected to decline nearly 48% in 2026 before recovering in subsequent years.

Analysts and Investors Remain Optimistic

In late May, Akamai was able to raise $3.5 billion through a convertible bond offering. And the company also announced a $350 million share buyback.

With the stock holding up well above $150, it appears investors still like the resurgent Akamai story.

And at least four investment banks agree with Guggenheim Securities raising their price target to $181 from $133 and Craig-Hallum jumping from $100 to a $190 objective.

Morgan Stanley and Susquehanna raised their price targets to $165 and $175, respectively.

But some pessimism persists as Goldman Sachs reiterated their Strong Sell rating while raising their target from $76 to $87 after the Q1 report.

The optimists are probably focused on Akamai's strong footprint in monitoring, preventing, and mitigating cyber attacks. The company recently cited their research data identifying these threat metrics for financial services: 

738% longer DDoS durations since 2024
147% rise in advanced bots
96% of banks faced API incidents
60–83% of web/API attacks hit banking

Bottom line: While the growth story is turning around amid new datacenter opportunities and initiatives in cybersecurity, it's a slow grind from here as the Goldman team believes. If you took a shot at AKAM shares under $80 last year when it was priced for failure, maybe it's a good time to take some profits now that they're priced for perfection. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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