For months, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has been making a name for itself in the fast-growing AI infrastructure market. But this week, the company suddenly grabbed attention after a regulatory filing revealed that artificial intelligence (AI) giant Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) now holds a 9.3% stake in the neocloud provider.
While Nvidia’s $2 billion investment in Nebius was already known, the new filing showed that its beneficial ownership also includes millions of shares tied to a pre-funded warrant that becomes exercisable later this year, giving investors a clearer picture of just how significant Nvidia's commitment really is.
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Wall Street did not waste time reacting. NBIS stock jumped 2.76% in extended trading on Monday before surging another 18.78% on Tuesday as investors viewed the disclosure as a strong vote of confidence from the company powering much of today’s AI revolution.
Of course, Nvidia’s backing alone does not guarantee smooth sailing. Nebius still has to execute on its ambitious growth plans in an increasingly competitive AI infrastructure market. With the stock suddenly back on investors’ radar after its sharp rally, the big question now is whether there’s more room to run, or whether much of the good news is already reflected in the price.
How should investors approach NBIS stock from here? Let’s get into more details.
About Nebius Stock
Headquartered in Schiphol, the Netherlands, Nebius Group is an AI infrastructure company that's focused on building a full-stack cloud platform for AI applications. The company provides large-scale GPU clusters, AI cloud services, and developer tools that help enterprises train and deploy AI models.
Beyond its core business, Nebius owns a technology-focused reskilling platform, TripleTen, and Avride, which develops autonomous driving and delivery robotics technologies. Backed by a strategic partnership with Nvidia, Nebius is rapidly expanding its AI cloud infrastructure to serve customers across industries, including healthcare, finance, robotics, and government. Led by founder and CEO Arkady Volozh, the company has also expanded into AI supercomputing and today commands a market capitalization of $54.9 billion.
Nebius has rewarded investors who were willing to stay the course. Over the past 52 weeks, NBIS stock has surged an eye-popping 341.2%, while jumping by 168.8% year-to-date (YTD). The rally gathered steam after the company’s stellar Q1 2026 earnings report in May and its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index in June, proving that success tends to snowball once Wall Street starts paying attention.
Still, every bull run eventually catches its breath. After hitting a record high of $299.86 on June 22, NBIS lost momentum as investors locked in profits amid broader concerns that AI valuations had run too far, too fast.
Now, the tide appears to be turning again. The stock has rebounded 21.54% over the past two trading sessions following Nvidia's stake disclosure, with a fresh wave of bullish analyst calls adding fuel to the recovery.
www.barchart.com Technically, the picture is steadily improving. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to 52.51, suggesting bearish momentum has slightly cooled, and the stock is no longer in an overheated or oversold zone.
While NBIS remains below its 50-day moving average, the recent rally has narrowed the gap considerably. Clearing that resistance could mark the next leg higher for the stock. More importantly, the stock continues to trade comfortably above its 200-day MA, a sign that the longer-term uptrend remains firmly intact despite the recent pullback.
Valuation-wise, NBIS stock is priced at 16.36 times forward sales, representing a premium to the sector average.
A Snapshot of Nebius’ Q1 Report
Nebius delivered its Q1 report for fiscal 2026 in May, generating revenue of $399 million, up a staggering 684% year-over-year (YOY). Excluding Avride and TripleTen, its core AI business performed even better, with revenue soaring 841% to $390 million, fueled by rapid data center expansion, high infrastructure utilization, and strong pricing across its AI cloud platform. The earnings report sparked a sharp rally, with NBIS stock climbing 22.42% over the two trading sessions following the release.
However, growth came with a hefty price tag. As Nebius accelerated investments in data centers, AI platform development, engineering talent, and strategic acquisitions, its adjusted net loss widened 20% YOY to $100.3 million. Even so, adjusted EBITDA swung to a profit of $129.5 million, representing a healthy 32% margin. More impressively, the core Nebius AI business expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin to 45%, up from 24% in the previous quarter, highlighting improving operating leverage as the platform scales.
Meanwhile, Nebius raised roughly $4.3 billion through convertible senior notes and secured Nvidia's $2 billion strategic investment, ending the quarter with $9.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Operating cash flow surged to $2.26 billion, aided by upfront customer payments, providing ample financial firepower to fund its aggressive infrastructure expansion.
Management also unveiled a five-year, $27 billion agreement with Meta Platforms (META), featuring a $12 billion dedicated compute commitment and another $15 billion in optional capacity. The deal not only strengthens revenue visibility but also gives Nebius flexibility to allocate capacity between Meta and higher-margin AI cloud customers.
Beyond financials, the company continued to deepen its ties with Nvidia, earning Nvidia Exemplar Cloud status for GB300 training workloads while gaining access to future GPU platforms, including Vera Rubin. AI demand remains robust, with the customer pipeline growing 3.5 times sequentially as enterprises across fintech, healthcare, robotics, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and life sciences increasingly adopt Nebius’ AI cloud and inference platforms.
To keep pace, the company expanded contracted power capacity beyond 3.5 gigawatts and now expects to exceed 4 GW by 2026, while unveiling a new Pennsylvania AI factory capable of supporting up to 1.2 GW. Plus, acquisitions of Eigen AI, Clarifai, and Tavily are helping transform Nebius into a full-stack AI platform with expanding capabilities in inference, agentic AI, and enterprise software orchestration.
Looking ahead, management is not thinking small. Annualized run-rate revenue is estimated to be between $7 billion and $9 billion in 2026, with total group revenue projected between $3 billion and $3.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 40%, although profitability could ebb and flow as new capacity ramps up. The company also lifted its 2026 capex forecast to $20 billion to $25 billion, emphasizing that the increase reflects strong customer commitments rather than rising costs. Still, rapid expansion is a double-edged sword.
With Nvidia's backing, bullish analyst calls, and a second-quarter earnings report for fiscal 2026 expected soon, investors will be looking to see whether Nebius can keep giving the bulls something to cheer about.
Analysts monitoring the company anticipate Q2 revenue to be $582.78 million, with losses coming in at $0.67 per share. Looking further ahead, fiscal 2026 loss per share is expected to widen by 7.9% YOY to $1.91, before narrowing down by 63.9% annually to -$0.69 in fiscal 2027.
Why Nvidia's Stake Carries Extra Weight
Sometimes, it’s not just the investment that moves a stock, but it’s who is writing the check. That’s exactly what happened with Nebius. While Nvidia's $2 billion investment was announced back in March, the latest regulatory filing put the size of the chipmaker’s commitment into sharper focus, reminding Wall Street that the AI leader now holds a 9.3% stake in the neocloud company. And when the company at the center of the AI boom doubles down on a partner, investors tend to pay attention.
The significance goes well beyond capital. Nvidia is not simply taking a financial position. It is reinforcing a strategic partnership. When announcing the investment earlier this year, CEO Jensen Huang said the two companies were working together to scale cloud infrastructure to meet the world’s rapidly growing demand for AI computing. That suggests Nebius could play an increasingly important role in powering next-generation AI workloads.
Wall Street is treating Nvidia’s stake disclosure as a fresh vote of confidence from the AI chip leader, and that’s why the market is reacting as though this is more than a one-day headline.
What Do Analysts Expect for Nebius Stock?
Nvidia's stake disclosure was not the only thing lifting sentiment around Nebius. Wall Street, a couple of days ago, delivered a fresh round of bullish calls, adding more fuel to the stock’s rally. For instance, Freedom Capital upgraded NBIS to “Buy” from a “Hold” and raised its price target to $200 from $159.
Northland turned even more optimistic, lifting its target to $410 while reiterating an “Outperform” rating. The brokerage firm believes Nebius is well positioned to capture roughly 14% of the massive AI-as-a-service market as demand for AI infrastructure accelerates.
Bank of America also stayed firmly in the bull camp, maintaining its “Buy” rating and $280 price target. Analyst Tal Liani pointed to sustained AI computing demand and Nebius’ shift toward a more asset-light business model, a combination that could support stronger profitability over the long run.
Overall, NBIS stock carries a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. Among the 15 analysts in coverage, 10 suggest a “Strong Buy,” and five analysts recommend a “Hold.” The stock has a mean price target of $255.33, implying upside potential of 12.5% from the current price levels. The Street-high target of $410 suggests that NBIS could rise as much as 80.6%.
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www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Sristi Suman Jayaswal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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