The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.86% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.36%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.47%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.85%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +1.43%.
Stock indexes are moving higher today as falling oil prices ease inflation concerns and knock bond yields lower. WTI crude is down more than -1% on signs that supply disruptions in the Middle East are set to ease, bolstering hopes that inflation can be kept under control. The 10-year T-note yield is down -6 bp to 4.95%. T-note yields are also falling after the Fed’s +25 bp rate hike on Wednesday reassured investors that the Fed is determined to tame inflation.
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US economic news was mixed for stocks today after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly declined to an 8-week low and the Sep Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey fell less than expected. Also, Aug pending home sales unexpectedly rose. However, Aug housing starts and building permits fell more than expected.
US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -10,000 to an 8-week low of 196,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 207,000.
US Aug housing starts unexpectedly fell -2.6% m/m to 1.275 million, weaker than expectations of an increase to 1.320 million. Aug building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -2.7% m/m to 1.394 million, weaker than expectations of 1.408 million.
The US Sep Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey fell -9.6 to 37.8, stronger than expectations of 32.1.
US Aug pending home sales unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.1% m/m decline.
Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are down by more than -1% today on signs that Middle East supply disruptions are easing. On Wednesday, US Energy Secretary Wright said 18 million bbl of crude oil and refined products went through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, easing global supply concerns. Also, Saudi Arabia said it seeks to return about half the capacity of the East-West pipeline within days following a shutdown last week because of drone strikes.
Crude prices earlier surged to a 3.75-month high on Tuesday as disruptions to Middle East supplies persisted. Last Friday, Saudi Arabia closed a major pipeline following attacks, disrupting a key route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The East-West pipeline, which carries 7 million bpd of crude, was closed after threats from Houthi rebels. The pipeline moves oil away from the Persian Gulf toward the Red Sea, where it can be loaded on tankers. Saudi Arabia told OPEC last Thursday that its crude production in August fell to 6.238 million bpd, the lowest since 1990.
Markets are discounting a 51% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.97%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.41%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.33%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up by +13 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is down -7.2 bp to 4.951%. T-notes are climbing today as a -1% decline in WTI crude oil prices eases inflation expectations. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 4-week low of 2.304% today. T-notes are also climbing after Wednesday’s +25 bp interest rate hike bolstered confidence that Fed Chair Warsh will act to tame inflation, reinforcing the Fed’s credibility and independence.
Gains in T-notes are limited as today’s sharp rally in stocks reduces safe-haven demand for government debt securities. Also, today’s unexpected decline in weekly jobless claims to an 8-week low signals labor market strength that is hawkish for Fed policy.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.5 bp to 3.482%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 1-week low of 5.207% and is down -7.9 bp to 5.217%.
Eurozone Aug CPI was revised lower to +3.2% y/y from the previously reported +3.3% y/y. Aug core CPI was left unrevised at +2.4% y/y.
As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%. The vote was 6-3, and the BOE said that "there has been little evidence so far of material second-round effects in price and wage setting." The BOE also scrapped plans to sell long-dated gilts as part of its quantitative tightening program.
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the global energy shock has so far had a limited effect on prices and wages in the UK, "but the longer the volatility persists, the bigger the impact it will have on inflation, and the more likely it is we will need to raise the Bank rate."
Markets are discounting a 51% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI stocks are moving higher today, supporting gains in the broader market. Intel (INTC) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) and SanDisk (SNDK) are up more than +6%. Also, Micron Technology (MU) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +5%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +4%. In addition, Broadcom (AVGO), Microchip Technology (MCHP), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +2%.
Most Magnificent Seven technology stocks are climbing today, a support factor for the overall market. Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +3%, and Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon.com (AMZN) are up more than +2%. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are up more than +1%. In addition, Meta Platforms (META) is up +0.06%, and Apple (AAPL) is up +0.03%
Cybersecurity stocks are moving higher today. Cloudflare (NET) is up more than +3%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Zscaler (ZS), Fortinet (FTNT), and SentinelOne (S) are up more than +2%. In addition, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Okta (OKTA) are up more than +1%.
Generac Holdings (GNRC) is up more than +18% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after agreeing to supply up to $8 billion worth of generators for Amazon.com’s data centers and issuing a warrant to Amazon for a stake in the company.
Vicor Corp. (VICR) is up more than +15% after saying it has granted a non-exclusive Vertical Power Delivery license to a new original equipment manufacturer.
Qiagen NV (QGEN) is up more than +4% after Manager Magazin reported that TPG and Bain Capital are among potential bidders for the company.
Fluence Energy (FLNC) is down more than -15% after cutting its full-year revenue forecast to $2.4 billion from a previous forecast of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion, well below the consensus of $3 billion.
Paramount Skydance Corp. (PSKY) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Barclays reinstated coverage on the stock with an underweight recommendation and a price target of $8.
CoreWeave (CRWV) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after announcing the establishment of an at-the-market offering program under which it may offer up to 35 million shares of Class A common stock.
Pegasystems (PEGA) is down more than -2% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.
Earnings Reports (9/17/2026)
American Resources Corp. (AREC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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