The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down by -0.17% on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.21%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) fell -0.15%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) rose +0.21%.
Stock indexes settled mixed on Tuesday. The broader market was under pressure Tuesday as soaring bond yields pushed the 10-year T-note yield to a new 19-year high of 5.29%. Weaker-than-expected US economic news also weighed on stocks after Aug JOLTS job openings fell to a 5-month low, and Sep consumer confidence tumbled to a 12-year low.
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However, stock losses were limited after a -3% plunge in WTI crude oil prices eased inflation risks and knocked bond yields from their highs. Strength in chipmakers on Tuesday also helped the overall market. In addition, dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on Tuesday reduced the chance of a Fed rate hike next month to 52% from 70% when he said the Fed needs only one more rate hike to contain inflation.
The July S&P composite-20 home price index rose +0.3% m/m and +2.47% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.20% y/y, with the +2.47% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in 14 months.
US Aug JOLTS job openings fell -256,000 to a 5-month low of 7.079 million, weaker than expectations of 7.228 million.
The Conference Board US Sep consumer confidence index fell -6.7 to a 12-year low of 81.9, weaker than expectations of 89.0.
New York Fed President John Williams said, "If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target."
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) dropped more than -3% on Tuesday as signs of larger oil exports from Saudi Arabia are bearish for prices. Tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show Saudi Arabia's crude exports stood at 5.28 million bpd in September, the highest in seven months. Saudi Arabia also said it restored about 3.5 million bpd of the East-West Pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity on Monday after repairs restored the link damaged by drone strikes earlier this month.
Markets are discounting a 52% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 2.5-week high and closed up +0.30%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.18%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.60%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) closed down -2 ticks on Tuesday. The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.9 bp to 5.255%. Dec T-notes sank to a 19-year nearest-futures low on Tuesday, and the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 19-year high of 5.291%. Supply pressures weighed on T-notes Tuesday after Paramount Skydance announced it was offering $32 billion of corporate debt in eight tranches, prompting bond dealers to short T-notes to hedge against the incoming supply.
Losses in T-notes were limited on Tuesday amid weaker-than-expected US economic news on Aug JOLTS job openings and Sep consumer confidence. T-notes recovered most of their losses on Tuesday after WTI crude oil prices fell more than 3%, easing inflation expectations. Also, dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams supported T-notes when he said he sees only one more Fed rate hike needed to contain inflation.
European government bond yields moved lower on Tuesday. The 10-year German bund yield fell -1.7 bp to 3.626%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -1.2 bp to 5.410%.
The Eurozone Sep economic confidence indicator unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 97.9, weaker than expectations of an increase to 99.0.
Spain Sep CPI (EU harmonized) rose +5.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.9% y/y and the largest increase in 3.5 years. Sep core CPI rose +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Markets are discounting a 32% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI stocks moved higher on Tuesday, a supportive factor for the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)climbed to a 2.5-month high and closed up more than +1%. Applied Materials (AMAT) closed up more than +5%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +4%. Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), KLA Corp (KLAC), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +3%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +2%, and Microchip Technology (MCHP), Micron Technology (MU), Broadcom (AVGO), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed up more than +1%.
Cruise stocks rallied sharply on Tuesday, led by a +13% jump in Carnival (CCL) to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $2.24 from a previous estimate of $2.22. Also, Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) closed up more than +7%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed up more than +3%.
Fair Isaac (FICO) closed down more than -26% to lead credit reporting agencies lower and losers in the S&P 500 after FHA director Pulte announced a move that makes it easier for lenders to adopt VantageScore, a move that will increase competition that could pressure credit companies’ market share and pricing power. Also, Equifax (EFX) closed down more than -3%, and TransUnion (TRU) closed down more than -2%.
US steel makers fell on Tuesday after President Trump announced plans for a $15 billion Mesabi Metallics steel plant in Iowa that could produce 10 million tons of steel by 2030. Steel Dynamics (STLD), Nucor Corp (NUE), and Commercial Metals (CMC) closed down more than -3%, and Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) closed down more than -1%.
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) closed up more than +6% after AstraZeneca said it would make a $2 billion strategic equity investment in the company to jointly develop drugs.
CarMax (KMX) closed up more than +4% after reporting Q2 net sales and operating revenue of $7.88 billion, well above the consensus of $7.05 billion.
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) closed up more than +4% after Oppenheimer & Co initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $24.
Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +3% after Axios reported that OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue is nearing $70 billion. OpenAI signed a deal with Oracle last year to support the development of five US data centers.
UniQure NV (QURE) closed down more than -37% after saying the benefits of its Huntington’s disease gene therapy drug AMT-130 were not as good after four years as they were after three years in a small trial, a result that could complicate its bid to get the treatment approved by regulators.
Apple (AAPL) closed down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after Bank of America said Apple faces risks as the company’s Siri AI lacks the features that Meta Platform’s Muse AI agent has.
Earnings Reports (9/30/2026)
Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM), Conagra Brands Inc (CAG), FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS), Jabil Inc (JBL), Micron Technology Inc (MU), Progress Software Corp (PRGS).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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