Northern Trust Corporation NTRS is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, 2026, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have increased year over year.
In the last reported quarter, the bank’s results benefited from a rise in net interest income. Also, an increase in total assets under custody and assets under management balances supported the financials. However, elevated expenses were concerning.
Northern Trust has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 7.90%.
Northern Trust Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Northern Trust Corporation price-eps-surprise | Northern Trust Corporation Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTRS’ second-quarter earnings has been revised upward over the past week to $2.68 per share. The figure indicates a 25.8% increase from the year-ago reported number.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.20 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 10.1%.
Key Factors & Estimates for NTRS’ Q2 Results
NII & Loans: In the second quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a hike later this year. Thus, stabilizing funding and deposit costs are expected to have supported modest growth in NTRS’s NII in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $648.7 million for the to-be-reported quarter, indicating a 6.3% rise on a year-over-year basis.
Also, per the Fed’s latest data, the overall lending scenario remained decent in the second quarter. Thus, NTRS is likely to have witnessed growth in loan demand, which is expected to have supported its average interest-earning asset growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average earning assets is pegged at $150.2 billion, indicating a 2.9% rise from the prior-year quarter’s actual.
Non-Interest Income: Northern Trust calculates its asset servicing and wealth management servicing fees using a lag effect, relying on prior-quarter end valuations for these computations. Asset servicing fees comprise custody and fund administration, investment management, securities lending and other fees.
Volatility was high in the equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange in the second quarter of 2026. As such, NTRS is likely to have witnessed growth in custody and fund administration revenues, as well as its investment management fees.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for custody and fund administration fees is pegged at $505.6 million, indicating a 7.8% rise on a year-over-year basis.
The consensus estimate for investment management fees is pegged at $173.5 million, implying a 10.5% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total wealth management fees is pegged at $598.9 million, indicating an 11.1% rise from the year-earlier quarter’s actual.
For the second quarter of 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for other operating income is pegged at $71.2 million, suggesting a 26.3% rise on a year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fee income is pegged at $1.55 billion, implying an 11.7% increase from the prior-year quarter’s actual.
Expenses: The company’s expenses are expected to have been elevated in the second quarter due to higher compensation costs and continued investments in equipment and software to modernize its technology infrastructure and strengthen operational resiliency.
Asset Quality: NTRS is unlikely to have set aside a substantial amount for potential loan delinquencies in the second quarter, given the modest improvement in the operating environment, supported by resilient economic growth, broadly stable credit conditions and the announced ceasefire in the Middle East. However, robust lending and persistently higher inflation are likely to have weighed on provision numbers.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets in the second quarter is pegged at $60 million, indicating a 34.8% decline on a year-over-year basis.
What the Zacks Model Reveals for NTRS
Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Northern Trust this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here, as you can see below.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for NTRS is +0.50%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
The Earnings ESP for Webster Financial Corporation WBS is +3.46% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 21, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for WBS's quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.61 per share.
The Earnings ESP for Business First Bancshares BFST is +2.82% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The company is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for WBS's quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 71 cents per share.
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Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS): Free Stock Analysis Report
Webster Financial Corporation (WBS): Free Stock Analysis Report
Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).