Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Owens Corning?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Owens Corning (OC) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.11 a share, just 14 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 5, 2026.
OC has an Earnings ESP figure of +1.66%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $3.11 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.06. Owens Corning is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
OC is just one of a large group of Construction stocks with a positive ESP figure. Boise Cascade (BCC) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Boise Cascade, which is readying to report earnings on August 3, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.31 a share, and BCC is 12 days out from its next earnings report.
Boise Cascade's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +6.50% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.23.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, OC and BCC could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Owens Corning Inc (OC)?
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Owens Corning Inc (OC): Free Stock Analysis Report
Boise Cascade, L.L.C. (BCC): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).