Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Cava Group?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Cava Group (CAVA) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.20 a share, just 15 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 11, 2026.
CAVA has an Earnings ESP figure of +20.30%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.20 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.17. Cava Group is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
CAVA is one of just a large database of Retail and Wholesale stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Dollar Tree (DLTR).
Slated to report earnings on September 2, 2026, Dollar Tree holds a #2 (Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $1.15 a share 37 days from its next quarterly update.
Dollar Tree's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +2.78% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.11.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, CAVA and DLTR could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
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CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).