Marriott International, Inc. MAR is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 3, before the opening bell.
MAR’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 1.5%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAR
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $3.06, indicating growth of 15.5% from $2.65 reported in the year-ago quarter.
Marriott International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Marriott International, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Marriott International, Inc. Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $7.3 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 7.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let's look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Marriott’s Q2 Results
Marriott’s second-quarter 2026 performance is likely to have benefited from resilient leisure demand, improving select-service trends, solid group business and continued growth in fee revenues. The company expects global RevPAR to increase between 1.5% and 2.5% in the quarter under review. Continued strength across the United States and Canada and incremental demand related to the FIFA World Cup are likely to have supported performance.
Group and business-transient demand are likely to have aided MAR’s second-quarter performance. Group booking pace for full-year 2026 was running approximately 5% ahead of the prior year, providing a healthy base of business entering the seccond quarter. Business-transient trends, excluding government travel, also remained solid. Continued strength across leisure, group and select-service categories is likely to have supported RevPAR growth in the United States and Canada. Our model predicts second-quarter RevPAR in the United States and Canada to increase 2.1% year over year.
The company’s fee-driven business model is expected to have supported earnings in the quarter under review. Marriott expects second-quarter gross fees to increase between 10% and 11%, supported by RevPAR growth and higher contributions from co-branded credit cards and residential branding. Credit-card fees are expected to increase meaningfully, while residential branding fees are anticipated to more than double year over year. Our model predicts second-quarter gross fee revenues to rise 10.8% year over year to $1.6 billion.
However, second-quarter performance is likely to have been tempered by geopolitical disruption in the Middle East and softer demand in certain international markets. Marriott expects Middle East RevPAR to decline approximately 50% in the quarter, while reduced connectivity through Gulf hubs may have pressured long-haul demand in select Asia-Pacific markets, including India and the Maldives.
Softer trends at Mexican luxury resorts, renovation-related disruption at certain owned and leased hotels and higher compensation expenses may also have weighed on results. Marriott expects second-quarter incentive management fees to decline in the mid-single-digit range and G&A expenses to increase in the mid- to high-single-digit range. Our model predicts incentive management fees to decline 3.8% year over year to $192.4 million. We expect G&A expenses to increase 9.2% year over year to $229.2 million in the quarter to be reported.
What Our Model Says About MAR Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Marriott this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAR: Marriott has an Earnings ESP of +1.88%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Marriott’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. LTH has an Earnings ESP of +1.12% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Life Time Group is expected to register a 21.6% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. LTH reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 10.9%.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation VAC currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Marriott Vacations earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 1%. VAC reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 0.7%.
Cinemark Holdings, Inc. CNK currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Cinemark’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 57.1%. CNK reported lower-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average miss being negative 20.4%.
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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): Free Stock Analysis Report
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Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).