Moody's MCO is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, before the opening bell. The company’s Moody’s Investors Service (“MIS”) division is expected to have benefited from healthy debt issuance activity across investment-grade and high-yield markets. However, fluctuations in issuance volumes and the timing of large transactions are likely to have influenced performance. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter total revenues in the MIS division is pegged at $1.16 billion, implying only a marginal year-over-year rise.
Corporate Finance, the largest revenue contributor to MIS, is expected to have benefited from healthy investment-grade bond issuance, supported by refinancing needs, AI-related capital spending and acquisition financing. High-yield bond issuance is also likely to have supported ratings demand. However, uneven leveraged loan activity, competition from private credit providers and a challenging year-over-year comparison might have weighed on revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corporate Finance revenues is pegged at $525 million, indicating an 8.9% decline from the prior-year quarter.
Moody’s Structured Finance business is expected to have gained from collateralized loan obligation (CLO) refinancing and reset transactions, along with healthy asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance. However, elevated borrowing costs and persistent commercial real estate headwinds might have constrained commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Structured Finance revenues is pegged at $147 million, indicating marginal year-over-year growth.
The Financial Institutions business line is likely to have benefited from debt issuance by banks and insurers to meet refinancing and regulatory capital requirements. The consensus estimate for revenues from this business line of $218 million suggests a year-over-year increase of 4.8%.
The Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance business line is expected to have benefited from financing activities related to utilities, energy projects, infrastructure development and public-sector borrowing. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $207 million implies a 28.6% rise year over year.
Other Factors to Influence MCO’s Q3 Earnings
Moody's Analytics (“MA”) Division: The division is expected to have benefited from sustained demand for risk assessment, compliance solutions, credit research and data analytics during the third quarter. Growth in recurring subscription revenues, supported by demand for Know Your Customer, insurance and banking solutions, is likely to have aided performance.
The company’s investments in AI-enabled products and expansion of its data and analytics capabilities are also expected to have offered support. However, the divestitures of certain non-core businesses might have partly offset revenue growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the MA division’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $938 million, indicating 2.9% growth from the prior-year quarter.
Expenses: Given Moody’s inorganic growth efforts, costs related to acquisitions and restructuring are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter, resulting in an increase in total expenses.
Earnings Whispers for Moody’s
According to our proven model, the chances of MCO beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Moody’s is -1.46%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Q3 Earnings & Sales Expectations for MCO
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.25, which has been revised marginally higher over the past seven days. The figure indicates an 8.4% rise from the year-ago reported number.
Moody's Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Moody's Corporation price-eps-surprise | Moody's Corporation Quote
The consensus estimate for sales of $2.06 billion suggests a 2.7% year-over-year rise.
Stocks Worth Considering
Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:
Associated BancCorp ASB is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 22. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present and an Earnings ESP of +1.71%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Quarterly earnings estimates for ASB have been unchanged at 76 cents per share over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Ameriprise Financial AMP is +0.35%, and it carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMP’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $11.60 per share.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).