Afya Ltd annual report, Q4 FY2022

Afya Limited — FY2022 Form 20-F Summary

Reporting period: Fiscal year ended December 31, 2022. This is an annual report, not a standalone fourth-quarter filing; the supplied filing text does not provide a clear set of Q4-only results. Afya is a Brazil-focused medical education and digital health company reporting under IFRS in Brazilian reais (R$). U.S. dollar figures are convenience translations, not a separate reporting basis.

Business context

Afya operates undergraduate education, continuing education and digital services. Its revenue is concentrated in tuition, particularly medical and health-sciences courses. The company reported 58,200 undergraduate students at year-end, down 4.7% from 61,118 in 2021; growth in reported revenue also reflects acquisitions and therefore is not directly comparable across periods.

Key financial metrics

Metric (R$ millions, except margins and ratios)20222021Change
Revenue2,329.11,719.4+35.5%
Gross profit1,469.51,067.1+37.7%
Gross margin63.1%62.1%+1.0 percentage point
Operating income664.1440.9+50.6%
Operating margin28.5%25.6%+2.9 percentage points
Net income392.8242.3+62.1%
Net margin16.9%14.1%+2.8 percentage points
Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP)962.1754.9+27.4%
Net cash from operating activities843.9630.9+33.8%
Operating cash conversion ratio (non-GAAP)94.4%100.8%Down 6.4 percentage points
Cash and cash equivalents, year-end1,093.1748.6+46.0%
Loans and financing, year-end1,882.91,374.9+36.9%

Margins and percentage changes above are calculated from the filing’s rounded figures. Finance result was a net expense of R$247.9 million, versus R$179.2 million in 2021, as interest expense rose amid higher Brazilian rates and the preferred-share instrument. The effective tax rate fell to 8.3% from 11.4%, primarily reflecting changes in tax effects and unrecognized deferred tax assets.

Cash used in investing activities was R$591.5 million, mainly for acquisitions and investment in property and intangible assets. Cash from financing activities was R$92.9 million. The filing reports R$297.0 million of capital expenditures in 2022 and a 2023 budget of R$225.6 million. Current assets were R$1,637.7 million and current liabilities R$905.7 million at year-end. These figures imply working capital of about R$732 million and a current ratio of about 1.8x.

Loans and financing include R$824.3 million associated with SoftBank’s Series A perpetual convertible preferred shares, classified as a financial liability under IFRS, and R$499.8 million of debentures. Lease liabilities were R$769.5 million; amounts payable to selling shareholders were R$528.7 million. The debentures require net debt (excluding the preferred shares and lease liabilities) to Adjusted EBITDA of no more than 3.0x; Afya reported compliance at year-end.

Material changes versus prior periods

  • Revenue grew 35.5%; management attributed approximately 48% of 2022 revenue growth to acquisitions and 52% to organic growth. Revenue growth excluding acquisitions was reported as 18.5%.
  • Undergraduate revenue rose 36.0%, supported by seat maturation, a 9.1% increase in the medical-program average monthly ticket to R$9,400, and acquired businesses. Cost of services grew more slowly than revenue, lowering its share of revenue to 36.9% from 37.9%.
  • Continuing Education revenue rose 49.1%, with active paying students increasing 34.2% to 4,280 as in-person activities resumed.
  • Digital Services revenue rose 25.0%, including contributions from 2022 acquisitions. Management cited stronger B2B activity and active payers, partly offset by weaker Medcel performance amid greater residency-preparation competition.
  • Operating income and net income increased, while finance expense also increased substantially. Operating cash flow rose, but cash conversion declined from 100.8% to 94.4%.
  • Net investing cash outflow decreased from R$1,274.1 million to R$591.5 million, chiefly because acquisition spending was lower than in 2021. Afya issued R$500 million of debentures in December 2022 to support general corporate purposes, liquidity and debt-maturity extension.

Outlook, commentary, risks and unusual items

  • Outlook: Afya said existing cash and operating cash flows should cover ordinary working-capital needs and capital expenditures for the next 12 months. It gave no formal revenue or earnings guidance. The company expects growth from medical-seat maturation, tuition increases, digital and continuing-education expansion, and selective acquisitions. Management estimated medical-student capacity could reach roughly 22,700 by 2028, subject to regulatory requirements and campus maturation.
  • Regulation and competition: In April 2023, after the reporting date, Brazil’s education ministry revoked the five-year suspension on authorizing new medical courses and established a new public-call process. New seats could increase competition and pressure tuition, costs or occupancy. Court challenges to the rules add uncertainty.
  • Acquisitions and subsequent event: Three digital businesses were acquired in 2022 for aggregate consideration of about R$99.4 million. DelRey, acquired on January 2, 2023, had a stated purchase price of R$825 million before net debt, with additional potential payment tied to seat approvals; it is not included in 2022 results.
  • Key business risks: Concentration in medical and health-sciences tuition; student affordability and payment defaults; changes or delays in FIES financing and loss of PROUNI tax benefits; regulatory approvals and education quality; acquisition integration and goodwill impairment; competition, technology and cybersecurity; and Brazilian inflation, interest rates, political conditions and currency movements. The real appreciated 6.5% against the U.S. dollar in 2022, but currency volatility remains a risk.
  • Liquidity and obligations: Contractual undiscounted obligations totaled R$4,913.1 million, including leases, financing, selling-shareholder payments, notes and customer advances. The filing reported no off-balance-sheet arrangements. Preferred shares carry a cumulative 6.5% annual dividend and specified conversion and redemption rights.
  • Legal matters: Provisions for probable legal losses were R$195.9 million, mainly tax matters; possible losses not provisioned totaled R$78.4 million. Afya also recorded R$145.3 million of indemnification assets relating to certain acquisition-related contingencies. Management considers legal outcomes uncertain.
  • Unusual items and controls: Afya invoiced R$9.9 million in 2022 for prior-period tuition discounts related to COVID-19, net of discounts and provisions. Auditors issued unqualified opinions on the IFRS financial statements and internal controls; management reported effective controls, although controls at three 2022 acquisitions were excluded from the year-end assessment. A critical audit matter concerned fair-value estimates for acquired intangible assets.

Most important facts for investors to verify

  • How much of reported growth is sustainable organic growth versus acquisition contributions, and whether student counts and medical-seat maturation support future revenue.
  • Cash generation after capital expenditures, acquisition payments, lease commitments and seller payments; also the sensitivity of debt costs to CDI and other Brazilian rates.
  • Debenture covenant headroom and the treatment, cash cost and potential dilution associated with SoftBank’s preferred shares.
  • Regulatory outcomes for new medical-course authorizations, existing campuses and seat approvals, including the effect on competition and tuition pricing.
  • Collection of tuition receivables, FIES exposure, recovery of COVID-era discounts, and the adequacy of legal provisions and related indemnification assets.
  • The integration and performance of acquired digital businesses, including whether acquisition-related goodwill and intangible-asset values remain supportable.