CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC quarterly report, Q3 FY2008

Business Context and Reporting Period

Company: The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Filing Type: Form 10-Q (Quarterly Report)
Period Ended: July 1, 2008 (13 weeks) and 26 weeks
Operations: Operates 143 Cheesecake Factory restaurants, 13 Grand Lux Cafes, and 1 RockSugar Pan Asian Kitchen. Also operates two bakery production facilities supplying restaurants and third-party distributors.

Key Financial Metrics

Metric (in thousands) 13 Weeks Ended
July 1, 2008
26 Weeks Ended
July 1, 2008
Revenues $407,134 $800,937
Net Income $19,101 $33,430
Diluted EPS $0.29 $0.50
Operating Cash Flow N/A $72,641
Cash & Equivalents $93,784 $93,784
Long-Term Debt $275,000 $275,000
Operating Margin 7.4% 6.7%

Material Changes vs. Prior Period

  • Revenue Growth: Revenues increased 9% ($407.1M) for the quarter and 10% ($800.9M) for the year-to-date compared to the prior year periods. Growth was driven by 23 new restaurant openings since the prior year quarter.
  • Comparable Sales Decline: Despite revenue growth, comparable restaurant sales decreased 4.1% for the quarter and 3.1% for the year-to-date. Management attributes this to reduced traffic due to macroeconomic factors, despite effective menu price increases of approximately 1.5%.
  • Profitability Pressure: Net income decreased 19% for the quarter ($19.1M vs. $23.7M) and 21% for the year-to-date ($33.4M vs. $42.1M). Operating margins compressed due to higher commodity costs (cheese, poultry, grocery) and labor expenses.
  • Debt Increase: Long-term debt increased by $100 million to $275 million following an amendment to the revolving credit facility in Q1 2008, primarily to fund share repurchases.
  • Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures decreased significantly to $39.8 million for the 26-week period compared to $104.8 million in the prior year period.

Guidance, Outlook, and Risks

  • Expansion Plans: Management expects to open six new Cheesecake Factory restaurants and the initial RockSugar Pan Asian Kitchen unit in fiscal 2008. Two additional openings are planned for the fourth quarter.
  • Capital Allocation: The company continues to prioritize share repurchases. The Board increased the repurchase authorization to 31.0 million shares. As of July 1, 2008, 18.1 million shares had been repurchased for $430.9 million.
  • Liquidity: Cash and marketable securities totaled $94.8 million. Net availability under the credit facility was $9.4 million as of July 1, 2008. Management believes current resources are sufficient for planned operations and capital expenditures.
  • Legal and Tax Contingencies:
    • IRS Audit: The IRS issued a Notice of Proposed Adjustment disallowing $5.1 million in executive compensation deductions related to misdated stock options. The company established a $2.2 million liability for estimated taxes and interest.
    • EEOC Litigation: The EEOC filed complaints alleging sex discrimination (Cleveland) and sexual harassment/hostile work environment (Phoenix). The company denies allegations and has not reserved for future payments.
    • Shareholder Derivative Actions: Settlements regarding historical stock option misdating were approved and became effective in June 2008; the company received $940,000 in repayments from directors/officers.

Investor Verification Checklist

  • Comparable Sales Trend: Verify if the 4.1% decline in comparable sales stabilizes in subsequent quarters given the macroeconomic headwinds.
  • Commodity Costs: Monitor the impact of rising cheese, poultry, and grocery costs on future operating margins and the effectiveness of menu price increases.
  • Debt Covenants: Confirm continued compliance with debt-to-EBITDA and EBITDAR-to-interest covenants, especially given the increased debt load.
  • Legal Resolutions: Track the outcome of the IRS audit regarding executive compensation deductibility and the EEOC discrimination lawsuits.
  • Share Repurchase Pace: Assess the sustainability of the aggressive share repurchase program ($97M spent in the first half of 2008) against cash flow generation.