Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. annual report, Q4 FY2023

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. — FY2023 Form 20-F

Business context and reporting period

This is an audited annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023, not a standalone fourth-quarter filing. Grupo Aval is a Colombian financial holding company with banking, merchant banking, and pension and severance fund businesses, principally in Colombia. Its consolidated financial statements follow IFRS as issued by the IASB; amounts below are Colombian pesos (Ps) unless stated otherwise. The filing does not provide a clear standalone Q4 financial-results comparison.

Comparisons with 2022 require care: BHI was spun off and deconsolidated in March 2022, and its 2022 and 2021 results were presented as discontinued operations. 2023 continuing-operations results therefore provide the more relevant year-over-year comparison.

Key financial metrics

MetricFY2023 / Dec. 31, 2023FY2022 / Dec. 31, 2022
Interest incomePs 28,919.4 billionPs 19,403.0 billion
Interest expensePs 22,632.4 billionPs 11,664.4 billion
Net interest incomePs 6,287.0 billionPs 7,738.6 billion
Net impairment losses on financial assetsPs 4,182.4 billionPs 2,493.1 billion
Net income, continuing operationsPs 2,177.1 billionPs 4,003.0 billion
Net income attributable to parent shareholders, continuing operationsPs 739.0 billionPs 1,888.9 billion
Net interest margin2.9% on the selected-data measure; management also reports 3.44% including trading investment income3.8% on the selected-data measure; management reports 3.68% including trading investment income
ROAA / ROAE0.7% / 4.5%1.6% / 14.0%
Cost-to-income ratio52.1%45.8%
Operating cash flowPs 6,005.5 billionPs (222.1) billion
Total assets / total equityPs 301,181.6 billion / Ps 31,520.4 billionPs 295,591.2 billion / Ps 30,821.7 billion
Cash and cash equivalentsPs 18,597.9 billionPs 17,032.9 billion
Customer depositsPs 181,987.4 billionPs 173,341.1 billion
Consolidated fundingPs 247,528.7 billionPs 245,457.9 billion
Bonds issuedPs 23,427.8 billionPs 28,362.2 billion
Loans, netPs 176,168.1 billionPs 179,115.8 billion

Material changes versus the prior year

  • Parent-attributable continuing-operations income fell 60.9%; consolidated net income fell 45.6%. The larger decline in parent-attributable earnings also reflects changes in subsidiary earnings mix and non-controlling interests.
  • Interest expense rose 94.0%, outpacing the 49.0% increase in interest income. Net interest income declined 18.8%, as higher deposit and funding costs—alongside slower repricing of fixed-rate retail loans—compressed margins.
  • Impairment losses on loans and other receivables rose 52.3%. Cost of risk increased to 2.6% from 1.9%, and loans more than 90 days past due reached 4.0% of gross loans from 3.3%.
  • Net commission and fee income increased 15.5%. Gross profit from sales of goods and services fell 29.2%, and trading income swung from a Ps 1,559.6 billion gain to a Ps 916.0 billion loss. Other income improved to Ps 3,751.3 billion, largely reflecting foreign-exchange gains.
  • Assets increased 1.9%; net loans declined 1.6%. Deposits increased 5.0%, while total funding rose 0.8%. Branches fell 9.3% and ATMs fell 8.3%, as digital and other non-physical transactions expanded.
  • Operating cash flow improved to Ps 6,005.5 billion. Investing activities provided Ps 1,840.6 billion, versus using Ps 13,012.5 billion in 2022; financing activities used Ps 3,536.9 billion.

Outlook, management commentary, risks and unusual items

  • Management describes 2023 as a particularly difficult year for Colombian banking, amid high interest rates, tight funding conditions and weak economic growth. Colombia’s GDP grew 0.6% in 2023; inflation was 9.28% at year-end and the policy rate was 13.00%.
  • Management expects a gradual improvement in banking-segment margins during 2024 as rates and funding conditions normalize, but notes that the pace depends on repricing liabilities faster than assets. It expects banking-segment expense growth below 2023 inflation, and expects merchant-banking real-sector results to be below 2023 levels. These are expectations, not formal quantitative guidance.
  • Consumer credit quality weakened, especially for personal loans and credit cards; the filing says it cannot conclude that deterioration has peaked. Risks include persistent inflation or high rates, slower growth, borrower defaults, foreign-exchange movements, sovereign exposure, regulatory change, and liquidity or funding pressures.
  • Banco Popular reported a 2023 net loss attributable to owners of Ps 397.9 billion and Banco AV Villas a loss of Ps 241.6 billion. Banco Popular sold Ps 1.6 trillion of loans to other Aval banks and issued a Ps 250 billion subordinated bond. Banco AV Villas reduced its consumer loan balance by 6.7%. Banco Popular’s late-2023 consolidation of Corficolombiana significantly changed its reported asset base; the parties’ share ownership did not change.
  • Corficolombiana’s construction-phase concession activity and earnings face transition and timing risks as projects move toward operations. The company recorded a Ps 253.0 billion expense related to the DOJ and SEC resolutions. The resolutions totaled US$60.6 million after credits; the filing estimates an approximately US$24 million impact on Grupo Aval’s consolidated statements based on its ownership. The DOJ brought no enforcement action against Grupo Aval; the resolutions made no allegation of corrupt knowledge or intent against Grupo Aval or Corficolombiana, other than against a former Corficolombiana executive.
  • Colombia’s proposed pension reform could reduce private administrators’ contribution-based fee income; the filing says the eventual impact is uncertain. Porvenir’s third-party FONPET management agreements ended in April 2023, and a dispute over outstanding commissions remained subject to a legal opinion request.
  • Banco Popular’s agreement to control Corficolombiana took effect in November 2023. In a separate BHI matter, Banco de Bogotá sold its remaining 4.11% interest in March 2023 to an affiliate of the controlling shareholder. The filing also identifies related-party transactions and controlling-shareholder influence as governance risks.
  • Auditors issued unqualified opinions on the IFRS financial statements and internal control over financial reporting. Critical audit matters were the loan-loss allowance and concession revenue and fair-value estimates. The SEC filing reports the DOJ and SEC investigations concluded; other ordinary-course litigation remains subject to uncertain outcomes.

Important facts for investors to verify

  • Review the audited financial statements and notes for cash flows, funding maturities, foreign-currency exposures, regulatory capital and liquidity measures; consolidated cash flow should not be read as a simple measure of holding-company cash available for dividends.
  • Check the underlying definitions and calculations for the different reported NIM measures, cost of risk, and asset-quality ratios.
  • Track consumer delinquencies, charge-offs, provisions and coverage, particularly in personal loans and credit cards, and assess whether deterioration continues.
  • Assess subsidiary-level earnings and capital, including Banco Popular and Banco AV Villas, and account for Corficolombiana’s consolidation under Banco Popular when comparing reported periods.
  • Review the final implementation and economics of pension reform, the resolution of FONPET commissions, and any material legal or regulatory developments.
  • Consider the concession-project pipeline, construction-to-operation transition, funding requirements and sensitivity to inflation and exchange rates; verify the recorded DOJ/SEC settlement expense and cash payments.
  • Consider dividend capacity and governance: Grupo Aval depends on subsidiary distributions, preferred shares generally have no voting rights, and the controlling shareholder has substantial voting control.