PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL CORP annual report, FY2020

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation — FY 2020 Form 10-K

Reporting period: Year ended December 31, 2020; filed February 24, 2021. This is an annual report, not a standalone fourth-quarter report. Pinnacle West is a holding company whose results are driven primarily by Arizona Public Service Company (APS), its regulated electric utility serving approximately 1.3 million customers in Arizona.

Financial performance and position

MetricFY 2020FY 2019Change
Operating revenue$3.587 billion$3.471 billion+3.3%
Operating income$788 million$672 million+$116 million
Net income attributable to common shareholders$551 million$538 million+2.3%
Diluted EPS$4.87$4.77+$0.10
Cash from operating activities$966 million$957 million+$10 million
Capital expenditures$1.327 billion$1.191 billion+$135 million

Operating income margin was approximately 22.0% of revenue, versus 19.4% in 2019; net income attributable to common shareholders was approximately 15.4% of revenue, versus 15.5%. Cash from operations less capital expenditures was approximately negative $360 million. Pinnacle West ended the year with $60 million cash, $6.314 billion long-term debt and $169 million short-term borrowings. Debt to capitalization was approximately 54% for Pinnacle West and 49% for APS, below the 65% covenant limit. Available credit facilities were $1.062 billion in total, including $1.0 billion at APS.

APS reported net income attributable to its common shareholder of $568 million, compared with $565 million in 2019. APS’s operating cash flow was $929 million and capital expenditures were $1.327 billion. Its year-end long-term debt was $5.818 billion; common equity ratio under the ACC financing order was 51%, against a 40% minimum. Pinnacle West paid $3.18 per share in dividends during 2020 and raised its indicated annual dividend to $3.32 per share.

Changes versus 2019

  • Higher revenue less fuel and purchased-power costs added $164 million, driven chiefly by hotter-than-normal weather (+$125 million net) and lower customer refunds related to the Tax Act (+$85 million). Lower fuel and purchased-power costs, customer growth and other items partly offset sales and transmission revenue pressures.
  • Higher operating costs included increased COVID-related, employee-benefit, bad-debt and information-technology expenses. Depreciation and amortization rose $23 million; interest expense rose $12 million.
  • Net income growth was partly offset by higher income taxes, including lower amortization of excess deferred taxes, and lower other income after contributions and other expenses.
  • Retail customers grew 2.3%; weather-normalized retail electricity sales increased 1.4%. During the pandemic period from March 13 through year-end, residential weather-normalized sales rose 5%, commercial and industrial sales fell 4%, and total usage increased about 1%.

Outlook, regulatory matters and risks

  • Management projects customer growth of 1.5%–2.5% annually and weather-normalized retail sales growth of 0.5%–1.5% in 2021, averaging 1.0%–2.0% annually over 2021–2023. Estimates include some, but not all, anticipated data-center contributions. A 1% sales variance may change annual net income by about $20 million; typical weather variation may affect income by up to $15 million, with extreme variations exceeding $25 million.
  • APS forecasts $1.5 billion of capital expenditures annually in 2021–2023. Management expects to fund investment with operating cash and external debt or equity financing.
  • APS’s retail rate case remained unresolved at filing. APS sought a $184 million annual revenue increase in its initial application and later proposed a $169 million increase; ACC Staff recommended an $89.7 million increase, while RUCO recommended a $20.8 million decrease. The hearing began in January 2021; the outcome could materially affect APS’s results and cost recovery.
  • APS’s Clean Energy Commitment targets 65% clean energy by 2030, including 45% renewables, ending coal-fired generation by 2031, and 100% clean, carbon-free electricity by 2050. At year-end, 50% of APS’s energy supply was from clean resources. APS plans at least 850 MW of energy storage by 2025; execution, permitting, affordability, reliability and regulatory approval remain important dependencies.
  • APS recorded a $25 million coal-community transition contribution in 2020. A proposed transition plan and customer funding components remained subject to ACC review. Cholla Unit 4 retired in December 2020; APS plans to cease coal use at its remaining Cholla units by April 2025 and at Four Corners by 2031. Recovery of retired-plant balances remains dependent on regulatory outcomes.
  • COVID-19 increased bad-debt expense and operating costs. The suspension of customer disconnections and the summer disconnection moratorium reduced 2020 operating results by approximately $23 million pretax; management estimated a further $20–$30 million pretax impact in 2021. APS resumed disconnections in January 2021 with payment arrangements for certain customers.
  • On February 22, 2021, APS agreed to pay $24.75 million to settle an Arizona Attorney General matter; $24 million is customer restitution. The filing also reports a $24 million reduction to 2020 residential revenue related to the matter.
  • Key risks include timely recovery of costs through regulated rates, environmental and coal-ash compliance costs, climate and wildfire exposure, drought and water availability, nuclear operating and spent-fuel risks, generation reliability, cybersecurity, customer bad debt, and access to capital. The auditor identified regulatory accounting and future rate decisions as a critical audit matter.

Important facts for investors to verify

  • Track the ACC decision in APS’s rate case, including allowed revenue, return on equity, plant-cost recovery and treatment of the proposed clean-energy recovery mechanism.
  • Confirm the timing and accounting treatment of the $24.75 million Attorney General settlement and any additional ACC action.
  • Monitor customer arrears, bad-debt expense and the actual 2021 effects of disconnection policies and COVID-19 recovery.
  • Assess whether planned $1.5 billion annual capital spending and clean-energy/storage commitments can be financed while maintaining credit metrics and dividend capacity.
  • Review coal retirement, CCR corrective-action estimates, regulatory-asset recovery and water, environmental and nuclear contingencies as new decisions or cost estimates emerge.