Gold ran hard from about 4000 in late July to a peak near 4690 on Aug 25. Since that top, every rally has failed a little lower than the last — that's the downward-sloping line drawn from the high.
Meanwhile the lows around 4280–4300 (mid-August and the Sep 1–3 dip) have held, forming the flat-ish line underneath. Price is now squeezed into the narrowing gap between them, which is why the last two weeks look choppy and directionless.
Roadmap:
- One more leg down. Price slides along under the falling resistance line and drops into the 4280–4300 support zone, roughly mid-September. Notice the up-arrow actually starts below the support line, near 4260 — so the idea allows for a brief dip through support (a stop-run) before it turns.
- First bounce. A recovery to around 4450, then a pullback to about 4400 that holds. That's the "retest" — proof the breakdown was fake.
- The real move. A rally to roughly 4570 by early October.
Profilo MQL5
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