$XAUUSD H1 — Sell the Retest of Daily Pivot 4366.5

Gold is trading around 4,355, pushing into the upper half of the descending H1 channel. The market is two-speed right now:

- Larger frames remain bearish: H1 RSI 45.7 with deeply negative MACD, M30 MACD negative, price below the daily pivot (4,366.56) and the H1 200-MA (4,366.33).

- Smaller frames are pumping: M5-M15 RSI 57-59, M15 CCI at 120, M30 Stochastic at 84 - short-term overbought.

Expect the first ticks to drift up toward 4,357-4,360. That bounce is a selling opportunity, not a buying one. No market orders - the setup is conditional.

Key levels (as marked on the chart)

- Resistance: 4,357 (H1 Bollinger mid) -> 4,366-4,367 (daily pivot + H1 200-MA, double confluence) -> 4,410-4,415 (channel top)

- Support: 4,347 (intraday floor) -> 4,320-4,314 (channel bottom) -> 4,297 (S1)

- No-trade zone: 4,348-4,360 - stand aside inside it

Plan

- Primary (short): price tags 4,366-4,367 and M5 loses its bullish edge (Stoch M5 rolling under 50, CCI M15 cooling below 100) -> SELL. Stop 4,374.5. Targets: 4,351, then 4,344, runner 4,320. Risk:reward 1:2+ at the second target.

- If H1 closes below 4,347 -> short continuation toward 4,341-4,335.

- If price stays inside 4,348-4,360 -> NO TRADE.

- Do not chase the bounce: M15 CCI above 100 and M30 Stochastic at 84 mean the pump is late-stage - buying here is buying the top of the retracement.

Invalidation

- H1 close above 4,374.5 cancels the sell setup.

- H1 close above 4,415 breaks the descending channel and voids the bearish thesis.

Risk

Limit orders only at hard levels. No chasing, small fixed size, stop on every order. First 15-30 minutes of the European open: stand aside while spreads widen. Educational analysis - not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.