It has been about a month since the last earnings report for FuelCell Energy (FCEL). Shares have lost about 11.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is FuelCell Energy due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for FuelCell Energy, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Key Highlights
• Revenue: $30.5 million in Q1’26 vs $19 million in Q1’25, up 61% year over year but missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $40 million.
• Adjusted EPS: Earnings per share of -$0.52 vs -$1.33 a year ago and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.68.
Segment Revenue Mix:
• Product: $12 million vs ~$0.1 million.
• Service: $3.2 million vs $1.8 million, up ~73%.
• Generation: $11 million vs $11.3 million, down ~3%.
• Advanced Technologies: $4.3 million vs $5.7 million, down ~25%.
• Backlog: $1.2 billion at January 31, 2026 vs $1.3 billion a year earlier, down 10.8%.
Revenue Drivers and Timing
Top-line growth in Q1’26 was driven by Korea replacement module deliveries and commissioning. FuelCell recognized $12 million of product revenue from two modules at Gyeonggi Green Energy (GGE) and two at CGN-Yulchon. Management noted about $6 million of product revenue shifted out of the quarter due to two modules commissioning just after quarter-end; those entered service in early Q2’26 and are contributing to second-quarter revenue. Service revenue rose to $3.2 million on higher activity under the GGE long-term service agreement. Generation revenue fell modestly to $11 million on lower output across the operating portfolio. Advanced Technologies revenue declined to $4.3 million, reflecting JDA and Rotterdam-related work and government contracts.
Margins, Costs, and Gross Loss
Gross loss widened to $5.9 million, driven by higher manufacturing variances from low production volumes and unabsorbed overhead at Torrington, and lower Advanced Technologies profit. Offsets included improved service gross profit and mark-to-market gains on natural gas contracts within generation cost of sales. Operating expenses fell to $20.4 million from $27.6 million in Q1’25, reflecting lower R&D and administrative costs after prior restructuring. Loss from operations improved 20% year over year to $26.3 million, and adjusted EBITDA improved to -$17 million.
Backlog & Liquidity
Backlog declined 10.8% year over year to $1.2 billion as revenue recognition outpaced new additions. At January 31, 2026: Generation $939.5 million, Service $159.4 million, Product $54.1 million, Advanced Technologies $18.2 million.
Total cash (including restricted) was $379.6 million at January 31, 2026.
Guidance
Management plans $20-$30 million of fiscal 2026 capex to advance the Torrington scale-up. The company reiterates its target to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA at a 100 MW per year production run-rate.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 20.22% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, FuelCell Energy has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock has a score of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, FuelCell Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
FuelCell Energy belongs to the Zacks Alternative Energy - Other industry. Another stock from the same industry, Sempra (SRE), has gained 5.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.
Sempra reported revenues of $3.75 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.2%. EPS of $1.28 for the same period compares with $1.50 a year ago.
Sempra is expected to post earnings of $1.42 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -1.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -4%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Sempra. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).