The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 15, before market open. The company’s revenues and earnings are expected to have improved on a year-over-year basis.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by higher net interest income (NII) and fee income. Further, rising loan and deposit balances, along with a decline in provisions for credit losses, supported the results. However, higher expenses acted as a headwind.
PNC has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in the trailing four quarters with an average surprise of 8.54%.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc Price and EPS Surprise
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc price-eps-surprise | The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc Quote
Factors to Impact PNC Financial’s Q1 Earnings
NII & Loan: In the first quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. This is likely to have supported PNC Financial’s NII in the quarter, given stabilizing funding/deposit costs.
Management expects NII to rise approximately 6% sequentially in the first quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII of $3.94 billion indicates a sequential rise of nearly 5.7%.
Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial and consumer loans was solid during the quarter, while real estate loan demand was subdued. As such, the company’s overall lending activity is expected to have strengthened in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest earnings assets of $551.8 billion indicates a sequential rise of 7.6%. The company expects average loans to rise nearly 5% sequentially in the first quarter of 2026.
Non-Interest Revenues: Mortgage rates remained elevated during the first quarter of 2026, hovering in the range of 6-6.5%, adversely affecting affordability. While refinancing activity witnessed a slight improvement from 2025 lows, origination volumes continued to face pressure due to inventory constraints. As such, PNC’s mortgage-related revenues are likely to have remained under pressure in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the residential and commercial mortgage revenues is pegged at $150 million, indicating a decline of 1.3% sequentially.
Further, the quarter witnessed solid client activity and heightened market volatility, driven by factors such as shifting expectations around AI, rising geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns, and uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Meanwhile, equity markets’ performance remained volatile, along with fluctuations across commodities, bonds, and foreign exchange. As a result, PNC Financial’s asset management and brokerage income is likely to have benefited from increased client engagement and trading activity during the quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $414.4 million, indicating a nearly 1% rise sequentially.
Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) activity remained weak in the first quarter of 2026, as volumes declined year over year, though deal value increased with large transactions dominating the space. Last year, President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement led to a sharp slowdown in deal-making activity for several months. While companies have since adapted to operating in a volatile environment, geopolitical uncertainty related to the Middle East conflict persisted in the quarter to be reported. As a result, lower deal volumes are likely to have weighed on overall activity, leading to a decline in PNC’s capital markets and advisory revenues in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s capital markets and advisory income of $443.8 million indicates a nearly 9.2% sequential decline.
Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for card and cash management revenues is pinned at $735.7 million, indicating a sequential marginal rise. The consensus mark for lending and deposit services is pegged at $338.5 million, indicating a 1% decline from the prior quarter’s actual.
Management expects fee income to decline nearly 1%-2% sequentially in the first quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income is pegged at $2.23 billion, indicating a 4.7% decline from the last quarter.
Expenses: The company’s expenses are expected to have continued flaring up during the first quarter of 2026 due to its investments in franchise expansion, technology and digitalization.
Management expects non-interest expenses to rise nearly 4% sequentially in the first quarter of 2026.
Asset Quality: PNC Financial is likely to have maintained elevated reserves at this time, particularly in commercial lending, amid a challenging operating backdrop shaped by the Middle East conflict and persistent inflation, which could pressure consumer demand and lead to higher delinquencies.
Management expects net charge-offs to be around $200 million, up from $162 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets is pegged at $2.49 billion, indicating an increase of 5.3% from the previous quarter. Also, the consensus estimate for non-performing loans is pinned at $2.41 billion, implying a sequential rise of 8.8%.
What Our Model Unveils for PNC
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for PNC Financial this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: PNC Financial has an Earnings ESP of +1.57%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
PNC Financial’s Q1 Earnings & Sales Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has remained unchanged at $4.10 over the past seven days. This implies a year-over-year rise of 16.8%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues of $6.23 billion indicates a 13.6% year-over-year increase. PNC projects total revenues to rise nearly 2%-3% in the first quarter of 2026 from $6.1 billion reported in the fourth quarter of 2025.
PNC’s Recent Development
In January 2026, PNC Financial completed its previously announced acquisition of FirstBank Holding Company, including its banking subsidiary, FirstBank, after receiving all required regulatory approvals. The transaction meaningfully strengthens PNC’s footprint in Colorado and Arizona, two of the fastest-growing banking markets in the United States.
Management expects the acquisition to be earnings accretive, adding nearly $1 per share by 2027, with integration slated for completion by June 2026. The acquisition adds nearly $26.8 billion in assets and 95 branches, more than tripling PNC’s branch network in Colorado to around 120 locations.
Other Bank Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for Bank of America BAC is +1.49% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 15, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BAC's quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 99 cents per share.
First Horizon Corporation FHN is also scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 15, 2026. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for FHN have also remained unchanged at 49 cents per share over the past week.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).