MEOH Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Y/Y Methanol Pricing

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MEOH Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Y/Y Methanol Pricing

Methanex Corporation MEOH reported adjusted earnings of 30 cents per share for the first quarter of 2026, down 76.9% from $1.30 in the year-ago quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents by 36.2%.

The profitability was pressured by weaker year-over-year methanol pricing and higher total cash costs, even as higher sales volume provided a meaningful offset. Methanex posted a net loss attributable to shareholders of $14 million, or 18 cents per share, primarily due to mark-to-market expense from share-based compensation linked to the company’s higher share price during the quarter.

Quarterly revenues rose 8.7% year over year to $974 million and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $963.9 million by 1%.

Methanex Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Methanex Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Methanex Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Methanex Corporation Quote

MEOH’s Operational Highlights

Methanex produced 2,391,000 tons of methanol in the first quarter, up from 1,619,000 tons a year ago. Management attributed the strong output to safe and reliable operations across the global portfolio, including contributions from the acquired Beaumont, TX assets, while noting that early-quarter production was briefly reduced in North America in response to high natural gas prices. The figure beat our estimate of 2,171,000 tons.

Total methanol sales volume was 2,622,000 tons in the quarter versus 2,217,000 tons a year ago. The figure missed our estimate of 2,690,000 tons.

The average realized price was $351 per ton, below $404 per ton in the year-ago quarter, reflecting a less favorable pricing environment year over year despite improvement from the prior quarter. The figure was above our estimate of $338.

Methanex’s Financials

Methanex ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $379 million compared with $425.3 million at the end of the prior quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was $132 million in the first quarter, reflecting working-capital headwinds as accounts receivable rose alongside higher pricing and inventory levels.

Shareholder returns remained in place, with $14 million paid through regular dividends during the quarter. Methanex also repaid $60 million of Term Loan A as part of its stated priority to de-lever, and it reiterated access to a $600 million revolving credit facility to support liquidity.

MEOH’s Outlook

Methanex reiterated its expectation for 2026 production to be 9 million tons of methanol (Methanex interest) and 0.3 million tons of ammonia, with quarterly variability tied to gas availability, planned turnarounds and unplanned outages. Management also noted that global supply and demand dynamics remain fluid, particularly given uncertainty around production and logistics in the Middle East.

With posted prices surging into April and May, Methanex expects significantly higher adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter on a higher realized price and similar sales of produced methanol. Management expects its average realized price to be approximately $500 to $525 per ton across those two months based on posted prices and discounts, setting up a materially stronger near-term pricing environment. The supply-chain disruption tied to the Middle East conflict is a key factor behind the rapid escalation in methanol pricing moving into the second quarter.

MEOH’s Price Performance

Shares of Methanex have gained 101.8% in the past year compared with the 20.6% rise in the industry.

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MEOH’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks

MEOH currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Some other top-ranked stocks in the basic materials space are CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, Compass Minerals International, Inc. CMP and Aris Mining Corporation ARIS.

CF Industries is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.35 per share, indicating 27.03% year-over-year growth. CF sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here

Compass Mineral is slated to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 6. The consensus estimate for CMP’s earnings per share is pegged at 66 cents. CMP presently sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Aris is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARIS’s first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 67 cents, indicating 318.75% year-over-year growth. ARIS carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Methanex Corporation (MEOH): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Compass Minerals International, Inc. (CMP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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