A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Antero Resources (AR). Shares have lost about 8.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Antero Resources due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Antero Resources Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y
Antero Resources, a leading natural gas producer, reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.15 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.22. The bottom line improved from the year-ago quarter’s level of 78 cents.
Total quarterly revenues of $1,945 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,669 million. The top line increased from the year-ago figure of $1,353 million.
The lower-than-expected quarterly earnings can be attributed to lower oil and C2 Ethane production and higher operating expenses. Higher natural gas production partially offset the negatives.
Overall Production
Total production in the first quarter was 347 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), an increase from 306 Bcfe recorded a year ago. The figure beat our estimate of 341 Bcfe.
Natural gas production (accounting for 68% of the total production) was 236 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcf), up 21% from 195 Bcf recorded a year ago. Our estimate for the same was pinned at 230 Bcf.
Oil production in the first quarter amounted to 816 thousand barrels (MBbls), down 4% from 852 MBbls registered in the year-ago period. Our estimate for the same was pegged at 587 MBbls.
Antero Resources reported production of 6,836 MBbls of C2 Ethane, down 8% from the year-ago quarter’s recorded figure of 7,442 MBbls. Production of 10,872 MBbls of C3+ NGLs was 6% higher than the 10,229 MBbls registered a year ago.
Realized Prices (Excluding Derivative Settlements)
Weighted natural-gas-equivalent price realization in the quarter was $5.37 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), higher than the year-ago quarter’s figure of $4.55.
Realized prices for natural gas increased 39% to $5.57 per Mcf from $4.01 recorded a year ago.
The company’s oil price realization in the quarter was $57.22 per barrel (Bbl), lower than the $59.08 recorded a year ago.
The realized price for C3+ NGLs declined to $37.83 per Bbl from $45.65 reported a year ago. However, the realized price for C2 Ethane increased to $13.51 per Bbl from $12.70 in the year-ago quarter.
Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses increased to $1,216 million from $1,081 million in the year-ago period.
Average lease operating costs were 13 cents per Mcfe, higher than the 11 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. Gathering and compression costs were 78 cents per Mcfe, 1% higher than the prior-year recorded number.
Transportation expenses rose 3% year over year to 67 cents per Mcfe, while processing costs declined 2% to 83 cents per Mcfe. Production and ad valorem taxes were 23 cents per Mcfe, which is 28% higher than the prior-year figure.
Capex & Financials
In the first quarter, Antero Resources spent $222 million on drilling and completion operations. As of March 31, 2026, the company had a long-term debt of $2.7 billion.
Outlook
Antero Resources expects production in the second quarter of 2026 to average 4.1 Bcfe/d. For 2026, net production is expected to come in at 4.1 Bcfe/d. The company projects modest production increases beginning in the second quarter, driven by contributions from HG Energy. The company has raised its ethane realized price premium to Mont Belvieu to a range of $2.00 to $3.00 per barrel, indicating a $1.00 increase in the midpoint compared to prior guidance. At the same time, it has lowered its cash production expense outlook to $2.25-$2.35 per Mcfe, which is a $0.10 per Mcfe reduction at the midpoint.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, Antero Resources has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Antero Resources has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Antero Resources Corporation (AR): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).