UBS (UBS) Up 6.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for UBS (UBS). Shares have added about 6.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UBS due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for UBS Group AG before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

UBS Group Q1 Earnings & Revenues Rise Y/Y Despite Higher Expenses

UBS Group reported a first-quarter 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of $3.04 billion compared with $1.69 billion in the prior-year quarter.

Results were driven by the strong performances of the Global Wealth Management, Asset Management and Investment Bank divisions. An increase in total assets was also encouraging. However, higher operating expenses acted as a headwind.

Revenues & Expenses

The company’s first-quarter total revenues increased 13.4% year over year to $14.24 billion.

Operating expenses rose slightly year over year to $10.33 billion.

UBS Group reported total credit loss expenses of $70 million, which declined 30% from the year-ago quarter.

Business Divisions’ Performance

Global Wealth Management’s operating profit before tax was $1.79 billion, up from $1.36 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Asset Management’s operating profit before tax was $217 million, up 60.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Personal & Corporate Banking reported operating profit before tax of $1.04 billion, up from $607 million in the year-ago quarter.

The Investment Bank unit reported an operating profit before tax of $1.21 billion, up from $722 million in the year-ago quarter.

Non-Core & Legacy incurred an operating loss before tax of $155 million in the reported quarter compared with a loss of $391 million in the year-ago quarter.

Group Items reported an operating loss before tax of $258 million compared with a loss of $299 million in the year-ago quarter.

Capital Position

Total assets rose 4.3% from the previous quarter’s end to $1.69 trillion.

The company’s return on Common Equity Tier 1 capital was 16.8% as of March 31, 2026, compared with 9.6% as of March 31, 2025.

The risk-weighted assets rose 3.5% year over year to $500.3 billion.

The CET1 capital rose 6% year over year to $73.3 billion. As of March 31, 2026, the company's invested assets were $6.9 trillion, up 11.8% year over year.

Capital Distribution Update

In the first quarter of 2026, the company repurchased $0.9 billion worth of shares and remains on track to complete $3 billion in share repurchases by the end of July 2026, with an aim to do more by the end of the year.

The extent of additional buybacks will depend on the company’s financial performance and outlook, as well as its ability to maintain a CET1 capital ratio of around 14% at year-end. Clarity on parliamentary deliberations regarding the treatment of foreign subsidiaries will also be a key factor.

Outlook

Management expects the Underlying Return on CET1 2026 exit rate is now expected to be around 15–16%, compared with the prior expectation of 15%.

The underlying cost-to-income ratio 2026 exit rate is expected to be less than 70%.

Management expects gross cost savings of around $13.5 billion which increased from $13 billion by the end of 2026 compared with the 2022 combined cost base of UBS Group and Credit Suisse.

CET 1 capital ratio is expected to be around 14% and CET1 leverage ratio of greater than 4% by 2026.

For full-year 2026, Global Wealth Management NII is projected to increase by low single digits year over year, while Personal & Corporate Banking NII is projected to rise by a mid-single-digit percentage.

Division Targets

The company expects the Global Wealth Management business to surpass $5 trillion of invested assets by 2028, with net new assets expected to exceed $125 billion in 2026 and more than $200 billion per annum by 2028.

Personal & Corporate Banking business is anticipated to witness an underlying cost / income ratio of less than 50% by the end of 2026. However, ongoing low Swiss franc interest rates could delay reaching this target. Management now targets a reported cost-income ratio of around 48% by 2028, even if rates remain at zero.

The Asset Management business is expected to register an underlying cost / income ratio of less than 70% by the end of 2026 with a reported cost / income ratio target of around 65% by 2028.

The Investment Bank is expected to register an underlying return on attributed equity of around 15% through the cycle, while the Non-core and Legacy business is now expected to have more than 95% of its positions closed by the end of 2026, compared with the prior expectation of reducing NCL risk-weighted assets to approximately $2 billion, with underlying operating expenses of around $1.8 billion and an underlying loss before tax of less than $1 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review over the past two months.

VGM Scores

Currently, UBS has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

UBS has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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